# Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-decisions-junsep
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-09-16

## Headline

- Leader: Pause–Pause–Pause at 56%
- Runner-up: Other at 40%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $265

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 56¢ | −17pp | $129 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-jun-sep-pausepausepause-polymarket-0xd17e44ec063959238b3e4587475977a584618f7e18892d7b13b47051dbaa9a35 |
| Other | 40¢ | +25pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-jun-sep-other-polymarket-0x1b56e46dba9e7b2bf93db18e7a79de3f97037314a46f8ebc93b541ae5f396200 |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 17¢ | +7pp | $129 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-jun-sep-pausepausecut-polymarket-0x3d58efa61842054779ee3541eb4394024172a4a111ee0606e6ec535f27bb7082 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Pause–Pause–Pause | Other | Pause–Pause–Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 72 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-06-09 | 72 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 21 | 20 |
| 2026-06-17 | 74 | 15 | 11 |
| 2026-06-18 | 57 | 40 | 18 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Other +25pp 15→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Pause–Pause–Pause −17pp 74→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Pause–Pause–Cut +7pp 11→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Other +5pp 10→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Pause–Pause–Pause −4pp 78→74¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at both the June and September 2026 meetings, with no rate cuts during this period. The 72% probability for the Pause–Pause–Pause scenario indicates traders view sustained higher rates as more likely than any cutting cycle. This outlook is primarily driven by inflation expectations and labor market conditions—if either deteriorates significantly, markets would shift toward pricing in rate cuts (currently at 14% for the Pause–Pause–Cut scenario). The June FOMC decision on June 18 will be the immediate catalyst, as it will provide clarity on the Fed's near-term stance and signal whether officials see sufficient progress on inflation to consider adjustments by September. Economic data releases between now and September, particularly inflation reports and employment figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts toward earlier rate reductions.

### Key factors

- The highest-priced contract at 83¢ reflects 83% confidence in no cuts through September, while competing scenarios (cuts in June, July, or August) total only 15¢, indicating strong market consensus for pause continuation
- The June 18 FOMC meeting represents the immediate resolution point; any forward guidance suggesting rate cuts would likely trigger sharp repricing toward cut scenarios
- Inflation data (CPI/PCE releases) and employment reports between now and September are the primary variables that could move the needle on whether the Fed maintains its current stance
- Trading volume concentration ($9 24h vol on the Pause–Cut scenario versus $1 on the leading contract) suggests limited conviction on cut timing despite meaningful tail probabilities
- The 14% runner-up probability for Pause–Pause–Cut indicates markets price meaningful risk of at least one cut by September if economic conditions soften

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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