# Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut-july-2026
Updated: 2026-06-07T06:40:32.790Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-29

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 23 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 62% / Polymarket 17% — 45pp spread
- 24h volume: $20.6M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 81¢ | −1pp | $4.8M | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-0-0-bps-polymarket-0xd4e77ba6f29fc093509d24f508631abd445ecf506bbdc9c4c80e60256a318527 |
| 11 (275 bps) | 0¢ | — | $3.9M | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-11-275-bps-polymarket-0x1adf074e048fa613f4ddbc0766088748a48d120a3a713b0183e219032a411ae3 |
| 10 (250 bps) | 0¢ | — | $3.8M | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-10-250-bps-polymarket-0x757c144993b3cb831e04c42bfcff8c18864c7da4f4688a5939d2f62e031cbc87 |
| 9 (225 bps) | 0¢ | −1pp | $3.2M | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-9-225-bps-polymarket-0x4ec6fcb43fe1a32163c7da09d54a99ab9bf6abdc6fd49939d7ad67d696a3248b |
| 6 (150 bps) | 0¢ | −1pp | $2.9M | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-6-150-bps-polymarket-0x4914bfdd892a48c341b5e0f41ec10475a815f2277273110b16f95e21084bfe75 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 2¢ | +1pp | $1.5M | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t3.75 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 99¢ | ±0 | $137K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t3.25 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 99¢ | ±0 | $130K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t3.50 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | −1pp | $93K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t4.00 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 99¢ | ±0 | $57K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t2.75 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? | 69¢ | −2pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.50 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | 94¢ | ±0 | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.50 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? | 92¢ | +2pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t2.75 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | 97¢ | +2pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.25 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | 14¢ | −1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.75 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | — | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t4.25 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | −14pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26sep-t3.50 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.25 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | — | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jun-t4.50 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? | 85¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 74 |
| 2026-05-25 | 61 |
| 2026-06-01 | 60 |
| 2026-06-08 | 50 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? −14pp 93→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? +8pp 78→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? +7pp 64→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? −7pp 71→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? +7pp 86→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets indicate a 97% probability that the federal funds rate will remain above 3.25% following the Fed's July 29, 2026 meeting. Current market pricing shows high confidence that rates will not be cut below 3.50% by July, with only a 14% chance implied by markets that rates remain above 3.75%. This reflects the current federal funds rate of 3.63% as of May 2026.

### Key factors

- Federal funds rate at 3.63%
- 97% chance rates stay above 3.25% in July
- 94% chance rates stay above 3.50% in July
- Persistent interest rate level
- 14% chance rates stay above 3.75% in July

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut-july-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed-rate-cut-july-2026
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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