# Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?

> Above 3.25% leads at 96%, runner-up 92% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut-june-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.259Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-09

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.25% at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 3.50% at 92%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $515

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.25% | 96¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.25 |
| Above 3.50% | 92¢ | ±0 | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.50 |
| Above 2.75% | 90¢ | +2pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t2.75 |
| Above 3.00% | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.00 |
| Above 3.25% | 80¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.25 |
| Above 3.50% | 79¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26sep-t3.50 |
| Above 3.50% | 65¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.50 |
| Above 3.75% | 54¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t3.75 |
| Above 3.75% | 7¢ | −1pp | $409 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26jul-t3.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.25% | Above 3.50% | Above 2.75% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | — | — | 81 |
| 2026-05-13 | 94 | 89 | 80 |
| 2026-05-23 | 94 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-05-25 | 95 | — | 87 |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 | 92 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 95 | — | 88 |
| 2026-06-06 | 97 | 94 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 92 | 90 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 92 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.50% −14pp 93→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.75% +10pp 35→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Above 3.50% +8pp 78→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 3.50% +7pp 64→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.50% −7pp 71→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets indicate there is effectively no chance of a rate cut below 2.75% at the June 17, 2026 meeting. Market pricing at 99% for a rate above 2.75% suggests that investors anticipate interest rates will remain significantly elevated, far above any levels consistent with a June cut.

### Key factors

- Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- 99% probability rates stay above 2.75%
- Persistent elevated rate cycle
- Market expectations of monetary stasis

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut-june-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed-rate-cut-june-2026
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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