# What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?

> December Meeting leads at 23%, runner-up 12% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:11.487Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: December Meeting at 23%
- Runner-up: October Meeting at 12%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December Meeting | 23¢ | ±0 | $713 | polymarket | /markets/fed-rate-cut-by-december-meeting-polymarket-0xc60022fe066abd6f96c375adb09f38d92c4931f09c10b805354581b4e5465e93 |
| October Meeting | 12¢ | −3pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/fed-rate-cut-by-october-meeting-polymarket-0x4092815fea8f91e60586882d45fa2f61bfca8a36d595f47fdea9eec5d2893025 |
| September Meeting | 10¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/fed-rate-cut-by-september-meeting-polymarket-0xb4022c0b2718eca7ad27195f2d48f06527fa000269d188e1d3001ff8bbc16956 |
| July Meeting | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/fed-rate-cut-by-july-meeting-polymarket-0x02507350fc2b81c3af36c659a805adbda9b0a81e63a27b29cb273cdd7dbc072e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December Meeting | October Meeting | September Meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 43 | 32 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 | 22 | 13 |
| 2026-05-31 | 28 | — | 13 |
| 2026-06-01 | 29 | 21 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | 23 | 13 | 9 |
| 2026-06-08 | 23 | — | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · December Meeting −4pp 29→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · October Meeting −4pp 20→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · October Meeting −3pp 16→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance, as the current federal funds rate is 3.63%, and prediction markets assign a 69% probability that the upper bound will remain above 3.50% following the December 2026 meeting. Market participants anticipate that rate-cutting cycles will be gradual, as indicated by a 63% chance that rates will stay above 3.25% through January 2027 and a 56% probability they will remain above 4.00% through April 2027. This suggests investors expect interest rates to remain elevated well into next year rather than aggressively shifting downward.

### Key factors

- current fed funds rate 3.63%
- stubborn core pce inflation 3.29%
- market-implied path of gradual rate cuts
- high expectation of rates remaining above 3.5% through 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-rate-cut
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed-rate-cut
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.