# Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting

> Above 0.00% leads at 94%, runner-up 89% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed
Updated: 2026-09-21T15:20:49.713Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-26

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.00% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 3.50% at 89%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.00% | 94¢ | — | $530 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t0.00 |
| Above 3.50% | 89¢ | +1pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jan-t3.50 |
| Above 4.00% | 84¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t4.00 |
| Above 0.25% | 76¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t0.25 |
| Above 3.75% | 72¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27apr-t3.75 |
| Above 4.00% | 66¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jan-t4.00 |
| Above 3.25% | 64¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t3.25 |
| Above 3.25% | 61¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-28jan-t3.25 |
| Above 3.75% | 55¢ | +28pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27mar-t3.75 |
| Above 4.25% | 40¢ | +4pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27apr-t4.25 |
| Above 4.25% | 35¢ | +3pp | $507 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-26dec-t4.25 |
| Above 4.00% | 35¢ | — | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t4.00 |
| Above 2.00% | 33¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t2.00 |
| Above 3.00% | 27¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t3.00 |
| Above 3.50% | 15¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-28jan-t3.50 |
| Above 2.50% | 11¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t2.50 |
| Above 2.75% | 11¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t2.75 |
| Above 2.25% | 9¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t2.25 |
| Above 4.75% | 8¢ | — | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jun-t4.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.00% | Above 3.50% | Above 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | — | 61 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | 35 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | 71 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — | 80 | 47 |
| 2026-09-19 | 52 | 89 | 84 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above 4.00% +35pp 47→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 4.00% +33pp 28→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 3.75% +28pp 27→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 3.75% +16pp 55→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 4.25% +15pp 12→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents traders' collective expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate above 4.00% when it meets on January 27, 2027. At 96%, the market is pricing in a high likelihood the Fed maintains rates above that threshold for the next six months. The current level reflects recent inflation data and Fed communications suggesting resistance to aggressive rate cuts. The primary uncertainty would resolve following the Fed's December 2026 meeting, where officials signal their January intentions through policy decisions and guidance. Market participants are heavily betting against a scenario where the Fed cuts rates below 4.00% by late January, though modest rate cuts between now and then remain priced in by competing contracts showing lower probability for below-3.75% bounds.

### Key factors

- As of early July 2026, the current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.25-5.50%, so reaching exactly 4.00% by January would require approximately 125-150 basis points of cuts over six months
- The December 9, 2026 Fed meeting shows 93% probability of rates staying above 2.75% but only 86% above 3.50%, indicating significant uncertainty about the pace of cuts in Q4 2026
- The July 29, 2026 meeting contract trades at only 15 cents, suggesting markets expect immediate rate cuts from current levels, creating a steeper glide path to 4.00% by January
- Economic data between now and December—particularly inflation readings and employment reports—will materially influence whether the Fed can or will cut 125+ basis points without triggering policy reversal
- The 96% probability derives from a single contract (above 2.75% post-January meeting) and is not an arithmetic average; competing outcomes suggest meaningful tail risk below 4.00%

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.