# Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0

> Exactly 1 leads at 38%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedchgcount
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.575Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 1 at 38%
- Runner-up: Exactly 0 at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 | 38¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-rate-changes-before-2027-be-exa-kalshi-kxfedchgcount-27jan01-e1 |
| Exactly 0 | 32¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-rate-changes-before-2027-be-exa-kalshi-kxfedchgcount-27jan01-e0 |
| Exactly 2 | 20¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-rate-changes-before-2027-be-exa-kalshi-kxfedchgcount-27jan01-e2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 1 | Exactly 0 | Exactly 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 31 | 36 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 31 | 49 | 14 |
| 2026-06-11 | 31 | 42 | 16 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 48 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 38 | 32 | 20 |
| 2026-06-25 | 30 | 31 | 20 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 32 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Exactly 1 −6pp 38→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Exactly 0 −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve will make zero interest rate changes between now and the end of 2026. The 23% probability reflects market expectations that the Fed will adjust rates at least once in the next seven months. The primary driver is the current inflation and employment environment. If inflation remains elevated or labor markets weaken unexpectedly, the Fed would be more likely to move rates, pushing this probability lower. Conversely, if inflation moderates toward the 2% target while employment stays resilient, a no-change scenario becomes more plausible. The Federal Reserve's policy meetings—particularly those in June and September 2026—and monthly inflation data releases (CPI reports) will provide critical signals that market participants will use to adjust expectations. Each major economic data point could shift this probability meaningfully as traders reassess the path of monetary policy.

### Key factors

- Current Fed funds rate level and inflation readings as of late April 2026 relative to the Fed's 2% target
- Employment data from monthly BLS releases, specifically whether unemployment remains below historical averages or begins to rise
- PCE and CPI inflation data published through end of 2026, particularly whether year-over-year measures sustain above or move below 2.5%
- Scheduled FOMC meeting dates in June, September, and December 2026, which are the windows where policy decisions occur
- Market pricing in fed funds futures contracts for specific meeting dates, which typically leads spot market probability adjustments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedchgcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedchgcount

## License

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