# Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026

> Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 leads at 62%, runner-up 39% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedcombo
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.688Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 at 62%
- Runner-up: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 at 39%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $611

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 | 62¢ | +5pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/will-federal-funds-rate-decision-be-no-change-and-kalshi-kxfedcombo-26jun-0-0 |
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 | 39¢ | −2pp | $445 | kalshi | /markets/will-federal-funds-rate-decision-be-no-change-and-kalshi-kxfedcombo-26jun-0-t0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 | Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 14 | 82 |
| 2026-04-30 | 18 | 77 |
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 52 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 55 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 60 | 36 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 −14pp 52→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 +14pp 41→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 +5pp 55→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at its June 17, 2026 meeting with no dissenting votes among policymakers. At 56%, the market slightly favors this outcome over alternatives. The current level reflects two primary considerations: recent economic conditions and inflation trends that may or may not warrant rate adjustments, and the degree of consensus within the Fed's policy committee. The June 17 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this question, with outcomes hinging on employment data, inflation readings, and Fed communications in the weeks leading up to the decision. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, as the runner-up scenario of no-change-with-dissents trades at 39%.

### Key factors

- Recent Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data relative to the Fed's 2% target will influence both rate decision and voting unanimity
- Monthly employment reports and jobless claim trends through early June will inform policymaker assessments of labor market stability
- Fed officials' public statements and economic projections released before June 17 typically shift probability as they signal intended policy direction
- The difference between the 56% no-dissent scenario and the 39% dissent scenario suggests markets expect broad consensus but acknowledge meaningful internal debate among voting members
- Options on the upper bound trading at 95 cents for staying above 3.50% indicate high confidence rates remain elevated, supporting hold expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedcombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedcombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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