# Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting

> Fed maintains rate leads at 89%, runner-up 74% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feddecision
Updated: 2026-06-17T15:20:20.891Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-28

## Headline

- Leader: Fed maintains rate at 89%
- Runner-up: Fed maintains rate at 74%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $402K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 89¢ | −1pp | $102K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26jul-h0 |
| Fed maintains rate | 74¢ | +2pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26oct-h0 |
| Fed maintains rate | 71¢ | −5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26sep-h0 |
| Fed maintains rate | 69¢ | −9pp | $131 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-27jun-h0 |
| Fed maintains rate | 68¢ | ±0 | $273 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26dec-h0 |
| Fed maintains rate | 66¢ | ±0 | $611 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-27apr-h0 |
| Cut 25bps | 19¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26oct-c25 |
| Cut 25bps | 17¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26dec-c25 |
| Cut 25bps | 13¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26sep-c25 |
| Cut 25bps | 12¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-27jul-c25 |
| Hike 25bps | 10¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-th-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26sep-h25 |
| Hike 25bps | 8¢ | −17pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-th-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26dec-h25 |
| Cut 25bps | 5¢ | +2pp | $125K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26jul-c25 |
| Hike 25bps | 5¢ | −5pp | $401 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-th-kalshi-kxfeddecision-27jan-h25 |
| Hike 25bps | 4¢ | ±0 | $162K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-th-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26jul-h25 |
| Cut >25bps | 4¢ | +1pp | $892 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26oct-c26 |
| Cut >25bps | 3¢ | +1pp | $599 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxfeddecision-26sep-c26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Fed maintains rate | Fed maintains rate | Fed maintains rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | — | — | 73 |
| 2026-05-19 | — | 78 | 76 |
| 2026-05-21 | 90 | — | 67 |
| 2026-06-02 | 88 | 57 | 75 |
| 2026-06-03 | 89 | 46 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 91 | 66 | 76 |
| 2026-06-16 | 90 | 75 | 71 |
| 2026-06-17 | 89 | — | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · Fed maintains rate +25pp 44→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Fed maintains rate +19pp 64→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Hike 25bps −17pp 25→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Hike 25bps +10pp 4→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Fed maintains rate −9pp 83→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points at their September 2027 meeting, currently priced at 94% probability. The market is pricing in a significant likelihood of rate increases by that date, reflecting expectations that current economic conditions will warrant tightening. The 94% probability suggests traders expect inflation or economic growth concerns to persist, or that the Fed will need to normalize rates from current levels. Near-term contracts show the market expects rates to hold steady through mid-2026 before diverging—June and July 2026 maintain rates are priced above 90%, while September 2026 drops to 68%. The September 2027 meeting is 16 months away, giving substantial time for economic data to shift expectations. Key drivers include inflation trends, labor market strength, and Fed communications between now and that meeting.

### Key factors

- Current Fed funds rate level and trajectory through 2026-2027 will determine whether >25bps hikes are necessary or appropriate
- Market expectations show high confidence in rate holds through summer 2026, but declining confidence in holds by September 2026 (68% vs 90%+), indicating a transition is priced in
- Inflation data releases, employment reports, and Fed forward guidance over the next 16 months will be primary drivers of repricing
- The contract's 94% probability significantly exceeds the near-term hold probabilities, suggesting market expects rate environment to shift materially between mid-2026 and September 2027
- Historical Fed hiking cycles and current economic baseline assumptions about growth and price stability will anchor trader positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feddecision
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=feddecision
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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