# Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feddissent
Updated: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Christopher Waller at 7%
- Runner-up: Beth Hammack at 7%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $379

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Waller | 7¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-chr-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-chri |
| Beth Hammack | 7¢ | +1pp | $144 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-bet-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-beth |
| Lisa Cook | 7¢ | −3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-lis-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-lisa |
| Lorie Logan | 6¢ | −2pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-lor-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-lori |
| Michelle Bowman | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-mic-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-mich |
| Michael Barr | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-mic-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-mbar |
| Jerome Powell | 3¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-jer-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-jero |
| Anna Paulson | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-ann-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-anna |
| John Williams | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-joh-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-john |
| Philip Jefferson | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-phi-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-phil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Christopher Waller | Beth Hammack | Lisa Cook |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-19 | — | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-05-20 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 2026-06-03 | 8 | 12 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | — | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-06-10 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | 6 | 8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 8 | 9 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · Anna Paulson −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Christopher Waller −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Jerome Powell −3pp 4→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Lisa Cook −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Federal Reserve official will dissent from the committee's policy decision at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. The 22% probability suggests markets assess dissent as unlikely but plausible. Dissent typically occurs when economic conditions or inflation trajectories diverge significantly from the Fed's consensus view. The key drivers are recent inflation readings and economic data—higher-than-expected inflation or growth could prompt a hawkish dissent favoring tighter policy, while weakness could trigger dovish dissent. The April 2026 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this directly when the committee votes and announces results, typically followed by detailed voting records showing any dissenters. Historical context shows dissent occurs sporadically, roughly 10-15% of the time in normal periods but more frequently during economic stress or policy divergence.

### Key factors

- April 2026 inflation data released before the FOMC meeting will determine whether officials perceive price pressures warranting policy disagreement
- The Fed's current policy rate trajectory heading into April 2026 constrains how much room exists for genuine disagreement among governors and regional presidents
- Recent FOMC dissents have been relatively rare in 2025-2026, suggesting consensus is currently stronger than historical averages
- The composition of voting members in April 2026 versus prior meetings affects likelihood, as different regional Fed presidents hold rotating voting seats with varying policy preferences
- Economic growth and employment data in March 2026 will provide the most recent conditions committee members evaluate before their April decision

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feddissent
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=feddissent
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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