# Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 19 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/federalcharge
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.865Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Schiff | 23¢ | −3pp | $499 | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-schiff-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befor-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-asch |
| Tim Walz | 13¢ | −2pp | $428 | kalshi | /markets/will-tim-walz-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-before-j-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-twal |
| Barack Obama | 5¢ | −1pp | $113 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befo-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-boba |
| Reid Hoffman | 15¢ | −1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-reid-hoffman-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befo-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-rhof |
| Letitia James | 45¢ | −1pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-letitia-james-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-bef-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-ljam |
| Gavin Newsom | 21¢ | −1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befo-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-gnew |
| Ilhan Omar | 29¢ | ±0 | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-ilhan-omar-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-before-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-ioma |
| Keith Ellison | 18¢ | −1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-keith-ellison-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-bef-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-kell |
| Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 17¢ | −5pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-jennifer-siebel-newsom-be-charged-with-a-any-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-jnew |
| Chris Krebs | 11¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-krebs-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befor-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-ckre |
| Hillary Clinton | 7¢ | −2pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-hillary-clinton-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-b-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-hcli |
| Jack Smith | 24¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-smith-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-before-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-jsmi |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 11¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-cassidy-hutchinson-be-charged-with-a-any-crim-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-chut |
| Anthony Fauci | 16¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-fauci-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-bef-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-afau |
| Alvin Bragg | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alvin-bragg-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befor-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-abra |
| Andrew Weissmann | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-weissmann-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-awei |
| Bill Clinton | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-clinton-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-befo-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-bcli |
| Christopher Wray | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-wray-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-cwra |
| E. Jean Carroll | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-e-jean-carroll-be-charged-with-a-any-crime-be-kalshi-kxfederalcharge-27jan01-ecar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 29 |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 |
| 2026-06-19 | 21 |
| 2026-06-26 | 19 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Jennifer Siebel Newsom +7pp 14→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Jennifer Siebel Newsom −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Anthony Fauci +5pp 18→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Anthony Fauci −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Anthony Fauci +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that Peter Strzok, the former FBI official who played a role in the Trump investigations, will face criminal charges by year-end 2026. The probability sits at 26%, suggesting traders view formal charges as unlikely but not remote within the timeframe. Movement in this probability would depend on prosecutorial decisions from the Trump Justice Department, which has signaled interest in reviewing alleged misconduct by officials involved in prior Trump investigations. Any formal criminal referral or indictment announcement would sharply increase the probability, while the arrival of 2027 without charges would resolve the question downward. Comparison markets show similar or higher probabilities for other figures in Democratic administrations or investigations, suggesting broader uncertainty about potential accountability efforts.

### Key factors

- Trump administration DOJ has explicitly reviewed conduct of FBI officials from 2016-2017 election investigations, making prosecution decisions more likely than under prior administrations
- No charges have been filed against Strzok as of May 2026 despite years of public scrutiny, suggesting legal barriers or insufficient evidence by prosecutors' standards
- Timeline is constrained to 8 months, making charges less likely than if the question extended further into 2027
- Related prosecution markets for Fauci (32¢), Omar (47¢), and Smith (32¢) show market pricing similar or higher, indicating broad uncertainty about accountability actions rather than unique factors favoring Strzok
- Formal DOJ charging decision or indictment announcement would be the primary catalyst that could move this probability substantially

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/federalcharge
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=federalcharge

## License

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