# Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 5.75%

> Above 1.00% leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedfundsyear
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.533Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2034-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.00% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 1.25% at 95%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $876

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.00% | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t1.00 |
| Above 1.25% | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t1.25 |
| Above 1.50% | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t1.50 |
| Above 1.75% | 93¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t1.75 |
| Above 2.00% | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t2.00 |
| Above 2.25% | 85¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t2.25 |
| Above 2.50% | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t2.50 |
| Above 2.75% | 82¢ | +4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t2.75 |
| Above 3.00% | 80¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t3.00 |
| Above 3.25% | 76¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t3.25 |
| Above 2.25% | 69¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-37jan01-t2.25 |
| Above 1.75% | 67¢ | +12pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-37jan01-t1.75 |
| Above 3.75% | 50¢ | +5pp | $544 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t3.75 |
| Above 4.00% | 49¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-30jan01-t4.00 |
| Above 3.50% | 48¢ | +6pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t3.50 |
| Above 4.00% | 43¢ | +3pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t4.00 |
| Above 5.75% | 21¢ | +6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-31jan01-t5.75 |
| Above 5.25% | 17¢ | +3pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t5.25 |
| Above 6.00% | 15¢ | +4pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-31jan01-t6.00 |
| Above 5.75% | 5¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-range-for-the-f-kalshi-kxfedfundsyear-28jan01-t5.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.00% | Above 1.25% | Above 1.50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 71 | 69 | 77 |
| 2026-08-06 | — | 95 | 95 |
| 2026-08-10 | 97 | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 96 | — | 95 |
| 2026-08-18 | 96 | — | 94 |
| 2026-08-21 | 97 | 96 | 94 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Above 1.75% +36pp 19→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 2.25% +33pp 16→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 2.25% −25pp 60→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above 3.50% +21pp 38→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.75% −21pp 64→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve's upper bound for its target interest rate will exceed 5.75% by the end of 2035—roughly nine years away. At 67% probability, traders are betting this threshold will be breached, reflecting expectations that rates will remain elevated relative to historical norms or rise again following potential future rate cuts. The near-term path of inflation and labor market conditions will heavily influence this outcome. Related contracts show traders assigning low probabilities to rates staying below 1.50% by 2031 (suggesting rates are expected to rise substantially), but much higher uncertainty about whether they'll exceed 6.00% by 2029. The Fed's actual policy trajectory over the next three years will be the dominant signal; if inflation proves sticky or labor demand remains strong, sustained higher rates become more likely, raising the probability this threshold is met.

### Key factors

- Current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.33% as of mid-2026; reaching 5.75% requires an increase of approximately 42 basis points or sustained elevated policy rates
- Related Kalshi contracts show only 5% probability of rates exceeding 6.00% by end-2029, suggesting most path-dependent probability mass is in 5.50-5.75% range by 2035
- Market pricing of intermediate thresholds (1.50% by 2031, 2.25% by 2032) indicates expectation of multiple rate adjustment cycles over the nine-year window
- Inflation persistence, labor market tightness, and geopolitical shocks between now and 2035 will drive Fed policy decisions and determine whether restrictive rates persist
- The contract depends on Fed maintaining upper bound above 5.75% specifically on December 31, 2035; temporary excursions or earlier peaks do not resolve the question

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedfundsyear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedfundsyear

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.