# Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

> Stephen Miran leads at 38%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedgovnom
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.055Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Stephen Miran at 38%
- Runner-up: Kevin Hassett at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Miran | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-next-nominate-stephen-miran-as-member-o-kalshi-kxfedgovnom-27-smir |
| Kevin Hassett | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-next-nominate-kevin-hassett-as-member-o-kalshi-kxfedgovnom-27-khas |
| Rick Rieder | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-next-nominate-rick-rieder-as-member-of-kalshi-kxfedgovnom-27-rrie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stephen Miran | Kevin Hassett | Rick Rieder |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 65 | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-24 | 62 | 3 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-04-26 | 63 | 4 | 7 |
| 2026-04-27 | 27 | 4 | 7 |
| 2026-04-30 | 37 | — | 6 |
| 2026-05-01 | 37 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 | — | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Rick Rieder, a prominent bond manager and financial executive, will be nominated to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors during Trump's presidency. The 26% aggregate probability suggests traders view it as possible but not the most likely outcome for an open seat. The 13-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi indicates disagreement about Rieder's chances, potentially reflecting different assessments of Trump's nomination strategy and Rieder's political alignment. Key drivers include Rieder's experience in monetary policy discussions, his track record in financial markets, and whether Trump prioritizes loyalty, technical expertise, or ideological alignment in Fed appointments. Resolution depends on whether Trump nominates someone for a Fed vacancy—either through natural retirements, the current board composition, or changes in Fed leadership. The timing remains uncertain, as Fed board vacancies typically occur on staggered schedules.

### Key factors

- Rieder's current role and public statements on monetary policy relative to Trump's stated preferences on Fed policy
- Number and timing of actual Federal Reserve Board vacancies that will occur during Trump's term
- Historical pattern of Trump's Fed nominations and whether they emphasize financial industry experience versus other criteria
- Polymarket-Kalshi divergence of 13pp suggests market uncertainty about Trump's selection priorities and Rieder's relative position among potential nominees
- Any public indication from Trump or Rieder about Fed board appointment interest or discussions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedgovnom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedgovnom
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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