# Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027

> Before 2029 leads at 93%, runner-up 92% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedhike-2
Updated: 2026-09-20T15:20:52.085Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2029 at 93%
- Runner-up: Before July 2028 at 92%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $898

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-december-31-kalshi-kxfedhike-2-28dec31 |
| Before July 2028 | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-june-30-202-kalshi-kxfedhike-2-28jun30 |
| Before 2028 | 91¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-december-31-kalshi-kxfedhike-2-27dec31 |
| Before July 2027 | 90¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-june-30-202-kalshi-kxfedhike-2-27jun30 |
| Before 2027 | 85¢ | +1pp | $882 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-december-31-kalshi-kxfedhike-2-26dec31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2029 | Before July 2028 | Before 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | — | 92 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 93 | — | 92 |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — | 91 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Before July 2027 +4pp 86→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at some point before the end of 2027. The pricing across the contract ladder suggests traders expect rate increases to occur relatively soon, with near-term contracts (by end of 2026) priced at 81¢, indicating meaningful near-term hike expectations despite recent rate cuts. The primary drivers are the inflation trajectory, labor market data, and Fed communications about policy direction. The December 2027 contract at 89¢ reflects increasing certainty as the timeframe extends, suggesting traders see rate hikes as highly probable within this window. The December 2026 contract pricing—most liquid at $4.2M volume—will be a critical test; if the Fed does not hike by then, the entire probability structure would likely shift lower. Key economic releases, Fed meeting decisions, and employment reports through late 2026 and 2027 will be the primary drivers of price movement.

### Key factors

- Current Fed policy stance: the overnight rate sits between 4.25-4.5%, following recent cuts; any hike would reverse this easing cycle
- Inflation data trajectory: if core PCE remains above 2.5% or re-accelerates, probability of hikes increases; disinflation below 2% would reduce likelihood
- The December 2026 contract (81¢) implies roughly 1-in-5 odds of zero hikes in the next 15 months, representing the near-term resolution point with highest trading volume ($4.2M daily)
- Rate path expectations: market pricing suggests traders expect rate increases more likely in 2027 than 2026, evident from the step-up from 81¢ to 89¢ across the contract ladder
- Labor market stability: unemployment rate changes and wage growth data will influence Fed calculations; significant labor weakness would reduce hike probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedhike-2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedhike-2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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