# Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conference

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 8 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedmention
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:59.037Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 15% / Polymarket 23% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $125K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before June | 10¢ | −1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jun |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | 35¢ | −2pp | $26K | polymarket | /markets/will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman-polymarket-0xfbb9e922b7dbbb4aa5253d98203d5593a93b59599447aff02354ecafbe19b916 |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | 17¢ | −4pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-who-are-you-with-where-are-you-from-kalshi-kxtrumpsay-26may04-who |
| Karoline / Leavitt | 23¢ | −12pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-karoline-leavitt-before-may-4-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpsay-26may04-karo |
| Before July | 19¢ | −6pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | 10¢ | +2pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0x0dc45815251ab7d5c3cbde5d7eee5bc96eac3d924c0a4c4f10175049e068fe20 |
| Above 50 | 17¢ | −13pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-50-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t50 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 4¢ | −7pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-kiri-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-kkap |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 33 |
| 2026-04-19 | 44 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 19 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Karoline / Leavitt −18pp 52→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Who are you with / Where are you from −15pp 37→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Karoline / Leavitt −14pp 69→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Who are you with / Where are you from −13pp 56→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 50 −13pp 29→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedmention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.