# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate before Jan 1, 2027

> Dot Plot Omitted leads at 59%, runner-up 54% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedreform
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.804Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Dot Plot Omitted at 59%
- Runner-up: Presser Skipped at 54%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $185

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dot Plot Omitted | 59¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-dplo |
| Presser Skipped | 54¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-pres |
| Forward Guidance Removed | 49¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-fgui |
| Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 38¢ | — | $173 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-tmea |
| Reserve President Rejected | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-reje |
| Reserve President Removed | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfedreform-27-remo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Dot Plot Omitted | Presser Skipped | Trimmed Mean Emphasized |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 59 | 52 | 40 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market contracts track the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will substantially alter its standard communication practices before year-end 2026. The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract—currently the highest-priced outcome at 65%—reflects market expectations that the Summary of Economic Projections may exclude individual participants' federal-funds-rate forecasts. The leading indicator is market uncertainty about potential Federal Reserve operational changes in response to political or economic pressures. The probability would rise if there are signals of structural policy changes or leadership transitions; it would fall if the Fed signals continuity in its communication framework. The primary resolution catalyst is the Fed's regular policy meetings and economic projections releases scheduled throughout the remainder of 2026, particularly any announced changes to post-meeting communication protocols or the December meeting outcome.

### Key factors

- The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract trades at 65¢ versus "Forward Guidance Removed" at only 49¢, suggesting market participants view omitting rate projections as more likely than removing forward guidance entirely
- The "Presser Skipped" contract at 60¢ indicates moderate probability of a cancelled post-meeting press conference, which could signal related communication changes
- Extreme low prices on "Reserve President Removed" (5¢) and "Reserve President Rejected" (6¢) suggest minimal market expectation of personnel disruptions that might trigger broader operational changes
- The 7-month timeframe to resolution (through December 2026) spans multiple regularly scheduled FOMC meetings where communication structure could be modified
- Kalshi volume remains relatively light across all contracts ($652–$2730 per contract in 24 hours), suggesting limited consensus and high model dependence

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedreform
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedreform

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.