# How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedtweets
Updated: 2026-06-04T19:20:13.057Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-04

## Headline

- Leader: >17 at 65%
- Runner-up: 15-17 at 22%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $728

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >17 | 65¢ | +54pp | $712 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-federal-reserve-posts-on-x-the-week-endin-kalshi-kxfedtweets-26jun04-17 |
| 15-17 | 22¢ | +12pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-federal-reserve-posts-on-x-the-week-endin-kalshi-kxfedtweets-26jun04-1517 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | >17 | 15-17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 3 | 8 |
| 2026-06-01 | 5 | 10 |
| 2026-06-03 | 11 | 23 |
| 2026-06-04 | 65 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · >17 +54pp 11→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · 15-17 +12pp 11→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · >17 +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will publish between 12 and 14 posts on X (formerly Twitter) during the week of May 26 to June 4, 2026. At 9%, the current odds suggest traders believe this outcome is unlikely compared to alternatives. The Federal Reserve's social media activity can vary based on policy announcements, economic data releases, and regular communication schedules. The primary driver of this probability is the Fed's pre-established communication calendar during this period. If significant economic data is released or policy decisions occur, posting volume may increase. If the week is relatively quiet on the policy front, posts may fall below or exceed the 12-14 range. The single biggest factor determining the final outcome is whether a Federal Open Market Committee meeting or major economic announcement occurs during this specific week, which would directly influence official communication volume.

### Key factors

- Historical baseline: Average Federal Reserve X posting frequency over recent comparable weeks (roughly 8-12 posts per week) establishes a reference for the 12-14 range probability
- Scheduled events: Presence of FOMC meetings, economic data releases, or policy announcements during May 26-June 4 would predictably increase posting activity
- Communication policy shifts: Any changes to Fed communication strategy or social media protocols introduced before June 4 would alter expected posting volume
- Competing contract prices: The 9-11 range (7¢) and 15-17 range (7¢) both trading higher suggests markets see 12-14 as a less-likely middle ground
- No recent volume: Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates low market confidence or consensus in current pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fedtweets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fedtweets
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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