# How high will the price of fertilizer get this year

> Above $1100 leads at 22%, runner-up 15% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fert
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.708Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $1100 at 22%
- Runner-up: Above $1000 at 15%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1100 | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1100 |
| Above $1000 | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1000 |
| Above $1200 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1200 |
| Above $1300 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-the-price-of-fertilizer-get-this-yea-kalshi-kxfert-26-1300 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $1100 | Above $1000 | Above $1200 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 45 | 22 |
| 2026-05-29 | 28 | 39 | 23 |
| 2026-06-12 | 35 | 41 | 26 |
| 2026-06-18 | 27 | 29 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 28 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 23 | 28 | 15 |
| 2026-06-25 | 22 | 28 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above $1100 −4pp 27→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Traders currently assess a 42% chance that fertilizer prices will exceed a specific threshold this year, with disagreement between markets suggesting genuine uncertainty. Fertilizer prices are driven by global supply constraints, energy costs (particularly natural gas for ammonia production), agricultural demand cycles, and geopolitical factors affecting major producers like Russia and China. The upcoming planting season and quarterly agricultural commodity reports will clarify demand signals, while any supply disruptions or energy price movements could significantly shift these probabilities. The 11-percentage-point gap between venues indicates traders weigh different factors—some emphasizing near-term supply tightness, others anticipating price moderation as the year progresses.

### Key factors

- Natural gas pricing trends directly impact ammonia and urea production costs, representing 30-40% of fertilizer manufacturing expenses
- Global grain planting intentions and soil nutrient depletion data release in coming months will establish demand baseline for Q2-Q4 2026
- Russian and Belarusian fertilizer export volumes remain subject to sanctions and geopolitical developments affecting supply
- Current inventory levels at ports and distribution hubs determine how quickly prices respond to production changes or demand shocks
- Historical fertilizer price volatility during spring application season typically peaks April-June, making seasonal timing a structural factor

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fert
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fert

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.