# Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026

> Jacob Tsimerman leads at 80%, runner-up 77% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fields
Updated: 2026-06-16T23:20:48.079Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Jacob Tsimerman at 80%
- Runner-up: Hong Wang at 77%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $832

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tsimerman | 80¢ | ±0 | $59 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-jacob-tsimer-kalshi-kxfields-26-jtsi |
| Hong Wang | 77¢ | ±0 | $745 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-hong-wang-kalshi-kxfields-26-hwan |
| Yu Deng | 56¢ | +1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-yu-deng-kalshi-kxfields-26-yden |
| John Pardon | 56¢ | +1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-john-pardon-kalshi-kxfields-26-jpar |
| Jack Thorne | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-jack-thorne-kalshi-kxfields-26-jtho |
| Aleksandr Logunov | 17¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-aleksandr-lo-kalshi-kxfields-26-alog |
| Sam Raskin | 14¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-sam-raskin-kalshi-kxfields-26-sras |
| Julian Sahasrabudhe | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-julian-sahas-kalshi-kxfields-26-jsah |
| Alexander Efimov | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-alexander-ef-kalshi-kxfields-26-aefi |
| Will Sawin | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-fields-medal-in-2026-will-sawin-kalshi-kxfields-26-wsaw |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jacob Tsimerman | Hong Wang | Yu Deng |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 59 | 65 | 37 |
| 2026-06-03 | 78 | 83 | 34 |
| 2026-06-10 | 69 | 84 | 49 |
| 2026-06-15 | 81 | 86 | 59 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | — | 60 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Yu Deng +15pp 53→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Jacob Tsimerman +13pp 69→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Aleksandr Logunov −13pp 21→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Jack Thorne −12pp 42→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Aleksandr Logunov +8pp 9→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 83% probability for Hong Wang reflects market consensus that he is the leading candidate among mathematical researchers for the 2026 Fields Medal, awarded biennially to mathematicians under 40 for outstanding achievement. Markets price Wang significantly ahead of Jacob Tsimerman (63¢), John Pardon (41¢), and other contenders. The probability will shift based on recent publication records, citation impact, and peer assessments of breakthrough results in the months leading to the August 2026 announcement. The International Mathematical Union will announce the four winners in mid-August 2026, which serves as the hard resolution date. Until then, market pricing reflects evolving perceptions of each candidate's research contributions and the overall strength of the field.

### Key factors

- Hong Wang's contract price (82¢) significantly exceeds the second-place candidate (Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢), suggesting market confidence rather than high uncertainty
- The 2026 Fields Medal ceremony occurs in August 2026, creating a defined resolution window where new publications or announcements could alter market perception
- Polymarket contract volumes are modest ($6–$22 per contract in 24h), indicating limited market depth and potential sensitivity to new information from mathematics conferences or preprint repositories
- The four-person medal award structure means even the leading candidate faces a multi-outcome risk; market odds do not reflect certainty
- Earlier recognition signals—such as peer nominations, conference prominence, or major theorem announcements between now and summer 2026—will directly inform final market pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fields
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fields

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.