2026 FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
17 contracts
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
2026 FIFA World Cup
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Julian Alvarez
0xff8763…6ad1
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Harry Kane
0xb9caf7…1e3e
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final: France
0x125c39…1f77
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final: Spain
0x8bdf55…136d
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele
0x624517…0f69
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe
0xfa021d…eb8e
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Lautaro Martinez
0xd2828d…781c
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final: Germany
0xbbadf2…bf68
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Argentina Squad: Lionel Messi
0x94c620…96f1
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad: João Pedro
0x830397…d716
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Cristiano Ronaldo
0xd7e4d5…85e7
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
0x00406e…9ee8
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Spain Squad: Álex Remiro
0x43cc94…75aa
2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Spain Squad: Martín Zubimendi
0xe91629…d972
Cluster 2
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
What moved the line
- May 19Player to make Brazil Squad: João Pedro↓51pp53→2¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Player to make Spain Squad: Álex Remiro↓28pp44→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 20Player to make Spain Squad: Martín Zubimendi↑18pp77→95¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Player to make Spain Squad: Martín Zubimendi↓18pp95→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Player to make Spain Squad: Martín Zubimendi↑17pp60→77¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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