# FIFA World Cup Group F Winner

> Netherlands leads at 54%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-f-winner
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.765Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Netherlands at 54%
- Runner-up: Japan at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 54¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9ad73ff7534b1051e2dad167a0b1617ae20f64f20770ae8bf89a59a7a7290669 |
| Japan | 28¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-japan-polymarket-0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801 |
| Sweden | 14¢ | ±0 | $382 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-sweden-polymarket-0x8bd82f13e633448c85e5c79428afcbf2b15bdb1e3c9f6ddbea62cb164f6fb23e |
| Tunisia | 6¢ | −1pp | $437 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-tunisia-polymarket-0xeb021bae39c99ec2915555e9463bc6b9f14606da6257adab38ee9eb47b3ee17b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Netherlands | Japan | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 55 | 24 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | — | 27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-20 | — | 27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-24 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 56 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 56 | 26 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 56 | — | 15 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 27 | 15 |
| 2026-06-07 | 53 | 28 | — |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Netherlands will finish first in Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 55% probability suggests traders view the Netherlands as the clear favorite, but not dominant—roughly twice as likely as the second-place candidate (Japan at 27%). The Netherlands' rating likely reflects their UEFA ranking, recent tournament performance, and squad depth compared to Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden. Group composition, head-to-head records, and injury status heading into the tournament drive uncertainty. The outcome resolves on the final group-stage matchday in June 2026, when all remaining matches are played simultaneously. Major shifts would follow official squad announcements, recent international friendlies, or unexpected roster changes.

### Key factors

- Netherlands holds an estimated 55% implied probability of topping Group F, compared to Japan at 27%, indicating traders see a significant but not overwhelming edge
- The four contracts show wide spreads (Netherlands 55¢ to Tunisia 5¢), suggesting material uncertainty about group outcomes and conditional probabilities
- Netherlands' contract maintains the highest 24-hour trading volume ($453) among Group F outcomes, though volumes remain relatively modest (suggesting limited institutional participation)
- Japan's 27% probability places it as the primary competitive threat; Japan's performance in warm-up matches and confirmed roster would materially shift the distribution
- Group F composition and scheduling (notably which team plays which opponent in each round) affects path-dependent outcomes and strength-of-schedule considerations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-f-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fifa-world-cup-group-f-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.