# FIFA World Cup Group G Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-g-winner
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Belgium at 63%
- Runner-up: Egypt at 26%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 63¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-belgium-polymarket-0x1e285f49c483634426c54834f840f6bfe780e0039eb0ad31357b936600b7c2d2 |
| Egypt | 26¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-egypt-polymarket-0xd5f291e4d2dfc44a42ee0eb1d83f2e42a90ce943a71f643cadf4e98c5a6ec3eb |
| Iran | 7¢ | −3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-iran-polymarket-0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290 |
| New Zealand | 3¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-new-zealand-polymarket-0x6d4e4bf288d8caa229a72a48b985722df1b803e11a9d0d7e9a3fa8275ecccb34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Belgium | Egypt | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | — | 19 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 69 | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 68 | 19 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 17 | 12 |
| 2026-06-13 | 71 | 16 | 11 |
| 2026-06-16 | 64 | 24 | 10 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 26 | 7 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · Egypt +6pp 17→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Belgium −4pp 71→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Iran −3pp 10→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Belgium −3pp 67→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 80% probability represents the likelihood that one specific team will finish first in Group G of the FIFA World Cup. The probability is driven by the composition of Group G teams, their recent form, and historical performance in international competitions. Teams ranked higher in world rankings and with stronger recent results command higher prices. The main resolution catalyst is the completion of Group G matches during the tournament, currently scheduled for late 2026. Shifts in this probability would reflect updated injury reports, pre-tournament friendlies that alter perceived strength, or significant changes in team composition through qualifying or last-minute roster decisions.

### Key factors

- Current market structure shows leader at 80% with runner-up at 76%, indicating two teams assessed as closely competitive within Group G
- Polymarket volume varies significantly across contracts ($453–$2437 24h), suggesting differential confidence in different outcomes and potential liquidity constraints
- The top contract (Japan, 27¢) competes across multiple group predictions, indicating traders assess probabilities across overlapping tournament segments
- Absence of real-time injury data or recent official roster announcements means market prices reflect historical standings and qualification-phase form rather than tournament-specific updates
- Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure concentrates probability mass on leading teams rather than distributing it evenly across all Group G participants

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-g-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fifa-world-cup-group-g-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.