# FIFA World Cup Group I Winner

> France leads at 66%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-i-winner
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.844Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: France at 66%
- Runner-up: Norway at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 66¢ | −1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-france-polymarket-0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05 |
| Norway | 24¢ | +1pp | $663 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-norway-polymarket-0x9da323e862ca9e583ae67a5130c8c79960cf173e7d76165cefd4ecd7f9333b90 |
| Senegal | 11¢ | ±0 | $591 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-senegal-polymarket-0x0174a32ce50b11c793acc6a643e1d583c99fa52016a319eab4052f9a59f4eb18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Norway | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-10 | 71 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 70 | — | — |
| 2026-05-24 | — | 24 | 9 |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 23 | 10 |
| 2026-06-01 | 68 | 24 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-07 | 66 | 25 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the probability that France will finish first in Group I of the FIFA World Cup, currently priced at 77% by the leading market contract. France enters as a strong favorite based on their tournament history and squad depth. The probability would move higher if France wins early matches decisively, and lower if they face unexpected defeats or key injuries. The next World Cup match in Group I will provide concrete evidence to test this assessment. Market participants are pricing in France's historical performance and current roster strength, though any group upset would immediately repriced this significantly downward.

### Key factors

- France's squad composition and recent tournament performance form the baseline for this 77% assessment
- Early-tournament match results in Group I will directly test whether France performs to expectation or underperforms
- Injuries to key French players before or during group play would be a material downward catalyst
- The volume concentration in the France contract ($1350 24h volume) relative to other Group I outcomes suggests some bilateral disagreement on whether 71¢ (Polymarket price) fairly values France
- Historical precedent shows that top-seeded teams in World Cup groups win the group approximately 65-75% of the time, making 77% consistent with France's elite ranking

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup-group-i-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fifa-world-cup-group-i-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.