# 2026 FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 17 contracts — refreshed 18 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup
Updated: 2026-05-24T23:20:09.370Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-20

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nation to Reach Final: Brazil | 23¢ | +2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-nation-to-reach-final-brazil-polymarket-0xf61d3e40d7048b817257fe8348f5df9304233d57510ccba11434f45eb96093d7 |
| Player to make England Squad: Cole Palmer | 3¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-c-polymarket-0x43941f7ab0b2b2d5452a791d339bb3d0b58757ebe9339587054ceefe7fbcda9b |
| Top Goalscorer: Julian Alvarez | 5¢ | ±0 | $847 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-julian-alvarez-polymarket-0xff8763ee77aec9cc4223cd429c726d35877ddcc47da679d6428510a929286ad1 |
| Top Goalscorer: Cristiano Ronaldo | 4¢ | −1pp | $839 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-cristiano-ronal-polymarket-0xd7e4d5460c92e0bfb839e9ac51677527894a176208481734400756db85d985e7 |
| Top Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe | 14¢ | −1pp | $746 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-kylian-mbappe-polymarket-0xfa021d817ad33e0fa28e04051b4fea25b0a090e94bb1b2a38b377bce9778eb8e |
| Nation to Reach Final: Mexico | 7¢ | +4pp | $632 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-nation-to-reach-final-mexico-polymarket-0x0cb2ec02d56d1dfdac788428b40a0e6ffcc0476c02602b21db91688cf74516e6 |
| Team to advance to Knockout Stages: Ivory Coast | 75¢ | −13pp | $588 | polymarket | /markets/fifa-world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages-polymarket-0xf1b5eddb0ee3c3398c161f731d21f170342feb192f7c0263d9baa7cbb6c1c31b |
| Player to make England Squad: Phil Foden | 3¢ | +1pp | $588 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-p-polymarket-0x9284c3d85ac57ec4b9fcbdb5007c456a7535a4d696718c86efc896fc9bb40b7f |
| Player to make England Squad: Adam Wharton | 4¢ | +3pp | $556 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-a-polymarket-0x2ecb1166d36fe8592e9517325cdd6321836229f1ffade1d6a914343cc28b551e |
| Nation to Reach Final: Morocco | 11¢ | −3pp | $534 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-nation-to-reach-final-morocco-polymarket-0xaeef597d962f131d0ae56979d8697a81b670e2cfc22bcc7fe24f40ea9d2b430a |
| Top Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes | 3¢ | — | $473 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-bruno-fernandes-polymarket-0xc6c32760ae1745e223794ba2bacf00db770e31705f9b93766b5b11dcf67d43c8 |
| Player to make Brazil Squad: João Pedro | 5¢ | ±0 | $471 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-brazil-squad-jo-polymarket-0x830397c9111469e48736fd0a9d57f58db8a720644588cfac80938ccd609cd716 |
| Player to make England Squad: Jarrod Bowen | 4¢ | ±0 | $439 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-j-polymarket-0x865fb4ebb45aae43dcca6938c279682992191cfaeb08f93a81c50db31a10c6d8 |
| Top Goalscorer: Erling Haaland | 8¢ | — | $392 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-erling-haaland-polymarket-0xb4431b4a10c926381c72d581ba9bec629f430feea5e72fbaff3a9e2ac87a3001 |
| Player to make England Squad: Fikayo Tomori | 4¢ | −9pp | $311 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-f-polymarket-0x7b43722e5aa80c274385ee7782beefdb3a361b82d2cf3f11e6dcfce1d793f0b0 |
| Player to make England Squad: Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 3¢ | +1pp | $276 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-player-to-make-england-squad-d-polymarket-0x69842f76a3112f3deaa71b13cd6da9dfa76ebeb94998fb18203a8d0685198556 |
| Top Goalscorer: Raphinha | 5¢ | −1pp | $259 | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-top-goalscorer-raphinha-polymarket-0x6d4e8d2d25f1826c0bd0f0b66948bfd612e6014717d58ac79606ba1256fa57d1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 56 |
| 2026-05-24 | 16 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Player to make England Squad: Cole Palmer −52pp 56→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Player to make England Squad: Adam Wharton −52pp 54→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · Player to make Brazil Squad: João Pedro −51pp 53→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Player to make England Squad: Jarrod Bowen −41pp 45→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · Player to make England Squad: Dominic Calvert-Lewin −30pp 41→11¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fifa-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fifa-world-cup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.