# Will Ben Stiller attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 1

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/finalsattend
Updated: 2026-06-09T07:20:11.983Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Probability: 61% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $84K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Donald J Trump | 90¢ | −2pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-attend-pro-basketball-finals-g-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-djt |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Bad Bunny | 6¢ | +4pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-attend-pro-basketball-finals-game-3-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-bad |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Kylie Jenner | 48¢ | −5pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-kylie-jenner-attend-pro-basketball-finals-gam-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-kyl |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Gregg Popovich | 4¢ | −5pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-gregg-popovich-attend-pro-basketball-finals-g-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-gre |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Zohran Mamdani | 97¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-zohran-mamdani-attend-pro-basketball-finals-g-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-zoh |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Ben Stiller | 97¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-stiller-attend-pro-basketball-finals-game-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-ben |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Selena Gomez | 15¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-selena-gomez-attend-pro-basketball-finals-gam-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-sel |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Tracy Morgan | 87¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tracy-morgan-attend-pro-basketball-finals-gam-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-tra |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Tim Duncan | 28¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tim-duncan-attend-pro-basketball-finals-game-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-timd |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Jaxson Dart | 49¢ | +10pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxson-dart-attend-pro-basketball-finals-game-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-jax |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Adam Sandler | 43¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-sandler-attend-pro-basketball-finals-gam-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-ada |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Pete Davidson | 65¢ | −6pp | $903 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-davidson-attend-pro-basketball-finals-ga-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-pet |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Carmelo Anthony | 92¢ | +1pp | $659 | kalshi | /markets/will-carmelo-anthony-attend-pro-basketball-finals-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-car |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Timothée Chalamet | 97¢ | +5pp | $568 | kalshi | /markets/will-timothe-chalamet-attend-pro-basketball-finals-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-tim |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Jimmy Fallon | 60¢ | +7pp | $514 | kalshi | /markets/will-jimmy-fallon-attend-pro-basketball-finals-gam-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-jim |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Jason Bateman | 60¢ | +13pp | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-bateman-attend-pro-basketball-finals-ga-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-jas |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Patrick Ewing | 97¢ | ±0 | $395 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-ewing-attend-pro-basketball-finals-ga-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-pat |
| New York vs. San Antonio in 2026?: Chris Rock | 68¢ | +9pp | $254 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-rock-attend-pro-basketball-finals-game-kalshi-kxfinalsattend-26jun09-chr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 51 |
| 2026-06-05 | 54 |
| 2026-06-06 | 58 |
| 2026-06-07 | 60 |
| 2026-06-08 | 53 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 62% probability that actor Ben Stiller will attend Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals between New York and San Antonio. The probability reflects typical celebrity attendance patterns at high-profile sporting events, balanced against competing schedule conflicts and personal preferences. Celebrity attendance at Finals games varies significantly based on several factors: personal connections to the teams or players involved, filming schedules, prior commitment patterns, and geographic convenience. The single largest determinant will be whether the Finals occur as scheduled and Ben Stiller's availability during that specific date window. Comparable markets show wide variance—Jason Bateman prices 77 cents while Jimmy Fallon trades at just 3 cents—suggesting individual preference and social networks drive these estimates rather than a uniform celebrity attendance baseline. Resolution depends entirely on documented attendance records from official Game 1 proceedings.

### Key factors

- No publicly stated preference by Ben Stiller for NBA or specific team involvement provides baseline context for his typical attendance rate
- Geographic proximity matters: the Finals location (New York hosts Game 1) affects likelihood compared to neutral venues
- Filming schedules for Stiller's current and upcoming projects during the Finals date range would directly enable or prevent attendance
- Historical precedent: documented instances of Stiller attending live sporting events can establish baseline behavioral patterns
- Official attendance records and game footage will definitively resolve whether he attends, making this directly verifiable

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/finalsattend
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=finalsattend

## License

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