# Will Amanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 7 contracts — refreshed 44 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/firsthurricane
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.507Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bertha | 21¢ | +8pp | $539 | kalshi | /markets/will-bertha-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-at-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl-ber |
| Arthur | 22¢ | −5pp | $534 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-at-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl-art |
| Edouard | 10¢ | +7pp | $442 | kalshi | /markets/will-edouard-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-a-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl-edo |
| Cristobal | 17¢ | −2pp | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristobal-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl-cri |
| Boris | 15¢ | +5pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-boris-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-eas-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac-bor |
| Dolly | 9¢ | ±0 | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-dolly-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-atl-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl-dol |
| Elida | 11¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elida-be-the-first-named-hurricane-in-the-eas-kalshi-kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac-eli |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 22 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 |
| 2026-06-08 | 19 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Elida −87pp 95→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Boris −17pp 40→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Elida +12pp 8→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Boris +11pp 16→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Boris +11pp 27→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 8% probability that Amanda will be the first named hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific during the 2026 season. Hurricane formation depends on ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and the timing of storm development relative to the Atlantic basin, where storms typically form first in the annual cycle. The low probability reflects that Atlantic hurricanes historically tend to develop before Eastern Pacific ones, as shown by markets pricing Arthur at 30% for the Atlantic. The market will resolve once the National Hurricane Center officially designates the first hurricane in each basin, likely between June and September 2026 when peak season activity occurs.

### Key factors

- Atlantic basin development historically precedes Eastern Pacific by several weeks on average, currently priced at roughly 4x the Eastern Pacific probability
- Sea surface temperature patterns through July-August 2026 will determine whether conditions favor early Eastern Pacific intensification over Atlantic activity
- The official National Hurricane Center hurricane designation is the sole determinant for resolution, requiring wind speeds of 74+ mph and official naming
- Kalshi volume concentration ($128 24h on Arthur vs $11-16 on other contracts) indicates significantly higher market interest in Atlantic first-hurricane outcomes
- Seasonal timing: if both basins remain relatively quiet through mid-July, Eastern Pacific probability would likely increase as ocean warming progresses

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/firsthurricane
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=firsthurricane

## License

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