# What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary

> New Hampshire leads at 41%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/firstprimaryd
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:51.166Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Leader: New Hampshire at 41%
- Runner-up: South Carolina at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 41¢ | −4pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/what-state-will-be-first-in-the-democratic-preside-kalshi-kxfirstprimaryd-28-nh |
| South Carolina | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-state-will-be-first-in-the-democratic-preside-kalshi-kxfirstprimaryd-28-sc |
| Nevada | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-state-will-be-first-in-the-democratic-preside-kalshi-kxfirstprimaryd-28-nv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | New Hampshire | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 37 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 40 | 29 |
| 2026-04-22 | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 41 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 37 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · New Hampshire −4pp 41→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Iowa will be the first state to hold a Democratic primary election in the 2028 presidential cycle. The 41% estimate sits between two major prediction venues, with a modest 3-point gap suggesting some disagreement about the likelihood. The outcome hinges primarily on whether the Democratic National Committee maintains its traditional calendar—Iowa has historically opened the primary season for decades—or whether recent reform efforts gain traction to reorder states. The Democratic National Committee's final calendar decision, expected well before 2028, will be the critical catalyst that resolves most uncertainty around this question. Until that official determination, markets will reflect ongoing debate about whether party leadership prioritizes tradition versus attempts to increase representation from earlier-voting demographics.

### Key factors

- DNC has signaled openness to calendar changes for 2028, having already modified 2024 calendar with South Carolina as first official contest
- Iowa's historical front-loaded status has faced criticism from party reformers seeking earlier participation from more diverse states
- No formal DNC calendar decision has been announced for 2028, leaving substantial uncertainty about institutional direction
- Contract volume and pricing consistency across Kalshi and Polymarket suggest modest confidence rather than high conviction in either direction
- Iowa's current 41% probability implies roughly 3-in-7 odds, consistent with it being a leading but not dominant candidate among potential first-state slots

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/firstprimaryd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=firstprimaryd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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