# Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before May 3, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fisaextend
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.912Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-reauthorizes-fisa-title-vii-kalshi-kxbills-fisa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 31 |
| 2026-06-01 | 21 |
| 2026-06-08 | 27 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) −10pp 31→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 surveillance authority by May 3, 2026—roughly three days from now. The 45% aggregate probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether lawmakers can move such legislation quickly through the legislative process. Section 702 is a contentious issue with both civil liberties advocates and national security officials taking strong positions, which typically slows passage. The cross-venue gap of 15 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing higher, suggests disagreement about how urgently Congress will act. The main driver of this probability is whether a clean reauthorization bill or a broader package containing Section 702 can advance through both chambers without extended debate or amendment conflicts. The immediate catalyst is the end-of-session legislative calendar over the next 72 hours, which will determine whether this authority receives priority floor time.

### Key factors

- Current legislative calendar status: whether Section 702 reauthorization is scheduled for floor votes in either chamber before May 3
- Status of related spending bills: the top contracts show DHS funding legislation is more heavily traded, suggesting Section 702 may be bundled into broader legislative packages that move on different timelines
- Amendment threat risk: proposals to modify Section 702 (privacy protections, warrant requirements) could delay passage if offered during floor debate
- Senate-House coordination: one chamber may pass reauthorization while the other delays, preventing both chambers from completing action within the 72-hour window
- Previous reauthorization patterns: Section 702 extensions have historically required multiple renewal cycles, with 2024's extension resolved relatively quickly, providing a baseline for current legislative velocity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fisaextend
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fisaextend

## License

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