# Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2028

> At least 30 days leads at 79%, runner-up 63% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fisalength
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.128Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 30 days at 79%
- Runner-up: At least 1 year at 63%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 days | 79¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-first-fisa-section-702-reauthorization-en-kalshi-kxfisalength-26may-fisa30d |
| At least 1 year | 63¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-first-fisa-section-702-reauthorization-en-kalshi-kxfisalength-26may-fisa1y |
| At least 90 days | 62¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-first-fisa-section-702-reauthorization-en-kalshi-kxfisalength-26may-fisa90d |
| At least 2 years | 32¢ | −28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-first-fisa-section-702-reauthorization-en-kalshi-kxfisalength-26may-fisa2y |
| At least 5 years | 26¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-first-fisa-section-702-reauthorization-en-kalshi-kxfisalength-26may-fisa5y |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 30 days | At least 1 year | At least 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 68 | 55 | 57 |
| 2026-05-02 | 78 | 63 | 62 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 62 | 62 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 63 | 62 |
| 2026-05-07 | 81 | 65 | 65 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · At least 2 years −28pp 64→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 5 years −17pp 30→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 30 days +10pp 68→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 1 year +8pp 55→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 5 years +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 45% chance that Congress will pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization extending surveillance authority for at least one year before the end of 2027. Section 702 permits warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence targets and has been contested in Congress, with past renewals requiring contentious negotiations between civil liberties advocates and national security officials. The market reflects uncertainty about whether lawmakers will reach consensus on extension terms before the deadline. The strongest near-term signals come from other related contracts showing 56-61% probability of any reauthorization passing by early May 2026, suggesting active legislative motion. The wide gap between the 90-day extension (6¢) and 1-year extension (45¢) probabilities indicates traders believe Congress faces significant pressure to act but may compromise on shorter timelines if full-year extensions prove politically difficult.

### Key factors

- High probability (56-61%) of reauthorization activity occurring by early May 2026 suggests imminent legislative action
- Sharp drop-off in probability for shorter extensions (6% for 90 days) versus 1-year extensions (45%) indicates disagreement among traders about likely negotiated terms
- 16-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (44%) suggests venues or trader pools weight similar information differently
- Section 702 reauthorization has historically involved protracted negotiations; current market reflects past patterns where civil liberties and surveillance concerns delay consensus
- Deadline of Jan 1, 2028 provides approximately 20 months for legislative activity from today, compressing options for multiple renewal attempts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fisalength
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fisalength

## License

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