# FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets: FK Akron Tolyatti (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $882

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects an even 50-50 assessment of whether FK Akron Tolyatti will win by more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match against FK Dinamo Makhachkala. The probability sits at parity, suggesting market participants see comparable offensive and defensive capabilities between the teams, or uncertainty about squad availability and form going into the fixture. Resolution depends on the actual match result, which will occur on the scheduled game date. The main drivers of movement would be any team news affecting squad depth, recent performance trends in the Russian football league, and historical head-to-head records between these clubs. Whether either side experiences injuries to key players or a shift in recent form could push the probability meaningfully in either direction.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and goal differential for both clubs in the 2025-26 season
- Historical head-to-head records and typical goal margins in previous matchups
- Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for each team, including goals scored and conceded
- Confirmed squad availability, injuries to key players, or suspension status as of match day
- Home/away venue advantage, as fixture location affects goal-scoring patterns and defensive solidity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk

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