# FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Krasnodar - More Markets: FK Akron Tolyatti (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-krasnodar-more-markets-fk-akron
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $906

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | −20pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Punjab FC (-1.5) | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/punjab-fc-vs-chennaiyin-fc-more-markets-punjab-fc-polymarket-0xea81e11adacd16d06cc52afd8e83cd1864dc58b62135f7e7931fbb9b70da2c80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Punjab FC (-1.5) −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that FK Akron Tolyatti will win by 2 or more goals against FK Krasnodar at 39%. The relatively modest probability reflects that Akron is being given a handicap of 1.5 goals—a substantial margin in soccer—suggesting market participants expect a competitive match. The main drivers of this probability are recent form and head-to-head performance between the teams, along with any lineup or injury information available. The market will resolve on the match result, scheduled for May 3, 2026. Shifts in this probability would likely follow team news, betting activity on related markets, or lineup announcements closer to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Akron's win probability at -1.5 goals implies approximately a 39% chance they defeat Krasnodar by a 2-goal margin or more
- Recent performance records of both teams in the current season, including goal differential and defensive consistency, directly influence whether such a large margin is realistic
- Injury status and lineup decisions for both sides, particularly among key attacking and defensive players, can materially shift the probability
- Head-to-head historical results between these specific clubs provide a baseline for expected competitive balance
- The -1.5 handicap itself indicates market consensus that Akron is favored but not overwhelmingly so; a 39% fill price suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether they can cover

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-krasnodar-more-markets-fk-akron
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-akron-tolyatti-vs-fk-krasnodar-more-markets-fk-akron

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