# FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk
Updated: 2026-05-05T18:50:36.705Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: FK Bodø/Glimt at 74%
- Runner-up: Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) at 15%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $327

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 74¢ | +2pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-fk-bodglimt-polymarket-0xe865161e97a48ef754d64f3c8391e041b33e9e0fcef3440ae2c08389e1f6675e |
| Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) | 15¢ | −1pp | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-draw-fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-polymarket-0x97e26b708cce56a392057e54620f32a06ea3098419d24cc0937dcec822f76f2f |
| Molde FK | 12¢ | ±0 | $55 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-molde-fk-polymarket-0xa52956c886382dde96deef4418e05b4d4d03a004b03e1ad792b7cb2b69de22fa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FK Bodø/Glimt | Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) | Molde FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 70 | 20 | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 70 | 16 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 15 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 73 | — | 13 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the estimated probability that FK Bodø/Glimt defeats Molde FK in an upcoming Norwegian football match. The 90% probability reflects strong market confidence in Bodø/Glimt's win, likely driven by relative team form, head-to-head record, or current league standing. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played—the outcome depends on in-game performance, injuries, tactical execution, and match circumstances. Spread contracts suggest confidence extends to victory margins: Bodø/Glimt winning by 1.5+ is priced at 50¢, while 2.5+ is only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or moderate win rather than a dominant one. Low liquidity in some contracts and the gap between the leading probability (90%) and secondary contracts suggests potential disagreement on the precise margin of victory despite consensus on the winner.

### Key factors

- FK Bodø/Glimt's -1.5 spread trades at 50¢ but -2.5 at only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or single-goal victory rather than a blowout
- The over/under contracts (2.5 at 74¢, 3.5 at 53¢) suggest relatively low expected goal totals, constraining how dominant any victory could be
- Molde FK's -2.5 contract prices at only 6¢, revealing near-zero perceived probability of a 2.5+ goal defeat despite being the runner-up outcome at 74%
- Low trading volume on higher-margin and Molde contracts suggests limited disagreement but also minimal recent price discovery or new information flow
- The 90% leader price substantially exceeds typical Polymarket average prices (42%), creating a gap that could reflect either genuine confidence or thin liquidity concentrating market opinion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk

## License

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