# FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FC Baník Ostrava

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fc-bank-ostrava
Updated: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Baník Ostrava | 51¢ | +10pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fc-bank-ostrava-polymarket-0xfd11e1e7bfe7fb20c3097ea6ec1f84945ba78334db4884f6f0b381e4166d2784 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 50 |
| 2026-05-23 | 60 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · FC Baník Ostrava +10pp 50→60¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 49% probability indicates a near even-odds assessment of FC Baník Ostrava winning their match against FK Dukla Praha. The market pricing reflects uncertainty typical of Czech football matchups where both teams operate at similar competitive levels. Recent form, home-field advantage, and injury status are likely anchoring the probability near the 50% midpoint. The match outcome will resolve this contract when the game concludes, eliminating all remaining uncertainty around the final result. Trading volume of $72,836 in 24 hours suggests moderate but not exceptional market interest in this specific fixture.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and recent win-loss records for both FK Dukla Praha and FC Baník Ostrava in the 2025-26 season
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including goals scored and defensive records in prior matchups
- Confirmed team news regarding key player injuries, suspensions, or roster absences as of match day
- Home-field advantage for whichever team is hosting, including typical win rates at their respective stadiums
- Recent form trajectory for both teams in their last 5-10 matches, accounting for strength of schedule

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fc-bank-ostrava
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fc-bank-ostrava

## License

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