# FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FK Dukla Praha

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fk-dukla-praha
Updated: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $504

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Dukla Praha | 25¢ | −9pp | $504 | polymarket | /markets/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fk-dukla-praha-polymarket-0xa3731336b56a110c2194251bd31fd49d2c69d73ebb387d6c16782c30ece9ad3e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 25 |
| 2026-05-23 | 16 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · FK Dukla Praha −9pp 25→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 26% probability that FK Dukla Praha defeats FC Baník Ostrava in their matchup. The relatively low probability suggests betting markets view Baník Ostrava as the favored team. The current odds likely reflect recent form, head-to-head records, and current league standings in the Czech First League. The match outcome will be determined once the game concludes, which is the primary event that resolves this uncertainty. Market participants typically weight factors such as recent winning streaks, home-field advantage, player injuries or suspensions, and tactical matchups when pricing probabilities for football matches.

### Key factors

- FK Dukla Praha's recent performance record compared to Baník Ostrava in the 2025-26 Czech First League season
- Head-to-head historical results and goal differential between these two clubs over their recent matchups
- Current league table positions, goal differential, and points accumulated by each team as of market pricing date
- Availability and injury status of key players for both sides, particularly starting strikers or defensive leaders
- Home-field advantage dynamics and each team's record in away matches versus home matches this season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fk-dukla-praha
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fk-dukla-praha

## License

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