# FK Jablonec vs. FC Slovan Liberec - More Markets: FC Slovan Liberec (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fk-jablonec-vs-fc-slovan-liberec-more-markets-fc-slovan
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $882

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 50% probability that FC Slovan Liberec will win by more than 1.5 goals against FK Jablonec in an upcoming fixture. The even split suggests comparable strength between the teams or uncertainty about their current form and head-to-head dynamics. Markets at this probability level typically indicate balanced trading interest, with liquidity appearing modest based on the aggregated contract volumes shown. Movement away from 50% would likely follow recent team performance data, injury reports, or betting line shifts from traditional sportsbooks. The outcome will be determined once the match concludes and final goals are tallied. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and accurate official scoring.

### Key factors

- Current market probability sits at exact parity (50%), indicating traders view both outcomes as roughly equivalent rather than favoring either team decisively
- The listed top contracts show broader Chinese and Japanese league matches with higher volumes, suggesting limited trading activity specifically on this Jablonec vs. Liberec matchup
- Slovan Liberec must win by at least 2 goals for the (-1.5) outcome to resolve affirmatively, a higher margin threshold than a simple win
- No recent injury reports, current league standings, or head-to-head records are reflected in the provided data, leaving form assessment incomplete
- Match resolution requires official confirmation of final score once the fixture is played on its scheduled date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fk-jablonec-vs-fc-slovan-liberec-more-markets-fc-slovan

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