# FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

> Randy Fine leads at 78%, runner-up 20% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl06-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.145Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Randy Fine at 78%
- Runner-up: Dan Bilzerian at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $725

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Fine | 78¢ | +3pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/fl-06-republican-primary-winner-randy-fine-polymarket-0x66be8921960aacc7b1cfd714a1cefd62a658dcb11f31430fa3d454b59cdc5a5c |
| Dan Bilzerian | 20¢ | −4pp | $719 | polymarket | /markets/fl-06-republican-primary-winner-dan-bilzerian-polymarket-0xfcdd3c3c0b496d86b67f302333ca2bcf80fa5258c1b8d85922907815be7ea3b6 |
| Charles Gambaro | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fl-06-republican-primary-winner-charles-gambaro-polymarket-0x5653870deef4e48ec63df5dcc358a51941d6673fa904374e5c1e53f5ab37a242 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Randy Fine | Dan Bilzerian |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 75 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 70 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 73 | 24 |
| 2026-05-09 | 76 | 20 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Randy Fine −5pp 75→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Dan Bilzerian −4pp 24→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Dan Bilzerian +3pp 23→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Randy Fine +3pp 70→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Randy Fine +3pp 73→76¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl06-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fl06-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.