# Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl19r
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.609Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Schwartzel | 27¢ | +1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-jim-schwartzel-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxfl19r-26-jsch |
| Catalina Lauf | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nominee-for-f-kalshi-kxfl19r-26-clau |
| Jim Oberweis | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jim-oberweis-be-the-republican-nominee-for-fl-kalshi-kxfl19r-26-jobe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 51 |
| 2026-06-12 | 48 |
| 2026-06-19 | 38 |
| 2026-06-26 | 31 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Jim Schwartzel +8pp 20→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Catalina Lauf −6pp 47→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Jim Oberweis +6pp 12→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Jim Schwartzel +5pp 19→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Jim Oberweis +5pp 7→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Madison Cawthorn will win the Republican primary for Florida's 19th congressional district. At 29%, markets suggest he faces meaningful competition, though he remains a plausible contender. The probability is driven by Cawthorn's existing political profile and fundraising capacity against potential challengers within the district's Republican electorate. Factors supporting higher odds include name recognition from his previous congressional service; factors supporting lower odds include questions about electoral viability following his 2022 primary loss and subsequent controversies. The primary election itself, typically held in August of election years, will ultimately resolve this question. Until then, shifts in candidate announcements, polling data, or fundraising reports could materially move this probability up or down.

### Key factors

- Cawthorn's track record in recent elections, particularly his 2022 primary loss in NC-11 and whether similar patterns hold in FL-19
- Strength and number of competing Republican candidates who announce entry into the FL-19 race
- Cawthorn's fundraising totals and spending relative to primary opponents in the months before the election
- Demographics and historical voting patterns of FL-19's Republican primary electorate
- Any new polling data or internal campaign metrics released between now and the August primary election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl19r
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fl19r
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.