# FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

> Jared Moskowitz leads at 38%, runner-up 23% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl23-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.569Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Jared Moskowitz at 38%
- Runner-up: Oliver Adams Larkin at 23%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Moskowitz | 38¢ | −3pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/fl-23-democratic-primary-winner-jared-moskowitz-polymarket-0x729e6b80e055d18a38a801a195a668488cc35afe00c47bf403d83718a94649b8 |
| Oliver Adams Larkin | 23¢ | −6pp | $79 | polymarket | /markets/fl-23-democratic-primary-winner-oliver-adams-larki-polymarket-0x27882ac2c84bac7ce950c4187caa74842575d3f915f4d8c9a7c4520934980a58 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jared Moskowitz | Oliver Adams Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 32 |
| 2026-04-10 | 67 | 31 |
| 2026-04-25 | 53 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 | 41 |
| 2026-05-09 | 38 | 24 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Jared Moskowitz +15pp 26→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Oliver Adams Larkin −13pp 41→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Oliver Adams Larkin +11pp 28→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Jared Moskowitz +8pp 18→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Oliver Adams Larkin −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner represents the probability that a particular candidate will secure the Democratic nomination for Florida's 23rd congressional district seat. At 45%, this reflects meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome, suggesting competitive dynamics between leading candidates. The current probability is influenced by candidate fundraising levels, polling data among likely Democratic primary voters, and organizational capacity in the district. The resolution will depend primarily on the primary election date and vote totals, which determines the Democratic nominee who advances to the general election. Key drivers of probability movements would include campaign finance reports showing funding disparities, internal or public polling releases indicating shifts in voter preference, and endorsements from prominent party figures or organizations that could consolidate support.

### Key factors

- Candidate fundraising totals and spending rate compared to primary opponents, as reported in Federal Election Commission disclosures
- Polling among likely Democratic primary voters in FL-23, including sample size, margin of error, and recency of survey data
- Voter registration trends and turnout patterns in the district's Democratic primary in recent election cycles
- Endorsements from established party figures, sitting officials, or organizational endorsements (labor unions, environmental groups) that demonstrate establishment support
- Primary election date and institutional factors such as ballot access requirements or early voting periods that affect candidate visibility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fl23-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fl23-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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