# Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 87% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.546Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Probability: 87% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner-alexander-polymarket-0xb73f32c2884c65f5dae192c33bef3f7ce3faeec4ad313d2d3a6ad62ea2c95caf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 88 |
| 2026-04-24 | 90 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 |
| 2026-05-08 | 87 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Alexander Vindman −10pp 84→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Alexander Vindman +9pp 74→83¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Alexander Vindman +5pp 83→88¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 83% probability indicates strong market confidence that a particular candidate will win the Florida Democratic Senate primary. The current price reflects an assessment of that candidate's likelihood of victory based on polling, fundraising, and organizational strength relative to other competitors in the race. Movements in this probability would primarily reflect changes in public polling data, campaign developments, or candidate endorsements. The main uncertainty driver is the timing and results of primary elections themselves—when voters cast ballots, the market will resolve to certainty. Near-term catalysts include candidate debate performances, monthly fundraising disclosures, and any significant polling shifts. The wide gap between the current leader at 83% and the runner-up at 6% suggests market participants view the race as relatively settled, though primary elections remain inherently unpredictable events where late shifts can occur.

### Key factors

- Public polling showing relative candidate support levels and trend direction in recent weeks
- Campaign finance reports demonstrating fundraising capacity and spending relative to primary opponents
- Organizational infrastructure metrics including field staff, volunteer activity, and ballot access status
- Endorsement patterns from party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in Florida
- Recent debate performance assessments and media coverage sentiment toward leading candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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