# Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 4 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flprimary
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.119Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bilzerian | 21¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-bilzerian-be-the-republican-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxflprimary-06r26-dbil |
| Jared Moskowitz | 8¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-moskowitz-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxflprimary-23d26-jmos |
| Randy Fine | 77¢ | +3pp | $373 | kalshi | /markets/will-randy-fine-be-the-republican-nominee-for-fl-0-kalshi-kxflprimary-06r26-rfin |
| Oliver Larkin | 3¢ | −4pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-oliver-larkin-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-f-kalshi-kxflprimary-23d26-olar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 |
| 2026-04-24 | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Jared Moskowitz −19pp 29→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Jared Moskowitz +15pp 14→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Oliver Larkin −13pp 32→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Jared Moskowitz +12pp 9→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Oliver Larkin −9pp 41→32¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=flprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.