# Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary

> Donalds, Collins, Fishback leads at 58%, runner-up 19% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flrgovexact
Updated: 2026-08-10T05:20:51.162Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Donalds, Collins, Fishback at 58%
- Runner-up: Donalds, Fishback, Collins at 19%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $449

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donalds, Collins, Fishback | 58¢ | +5pp | $449 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-2026-flor-kalshi-kxflrgovexact-26aug18-don-col-fis |
| Donalds, Fishback, Collins | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-2026-flor-kalshi-kxflrgovexact-26aug18-don-fis-col |
| Donalds, Collins, Renner | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-2026-flor-kalshi-kxflrgovexact-26aug18-don-col-ren |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Donalds, Collins, Fishback | Donalds, Fishback, Collins | Donalds, Collins, Renner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | — | 13 | 19 |
| 2026-07-18 | 7 | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 23 | 41 | 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | 43 | 27 | 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 7 | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 56 | 23 | 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | 58 | — | 6 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Donalds, Fishback, Collins +13pp 7→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Donalds, Collins, Fishback +7pp 43→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Donalds, Collins, Renner +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Donalds, Collins, Fishback +5pp 53→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Donalds, Fishback, Collins +5pp 20→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Donalds, Collins, and Fishback finish in that exact order in Florida's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. The 30% probability for this specific sequence reflects that while Donalds appears positioned as the frontrunner, the second and third finishers remain uncertain among multiple candidates. The exact finishing order depends on candidate momentum shifts, turnout patterns, and potential consolidation among the field in the weeks before voting. Results will materialize when Florida holds its Republican primary election. The relatively fragmented pricing across different three-candidate combinations suggests traders view multiple plausible finishes as competitive rather than strongly favoring any single outcome.

### Key factors

- Donalds appears consistently priced as the likely first-place finisher across all top contracts, but alternative second and third-place finishers carry comparable probabilities (21% for one specific ordering)
- The top five contracts span multiple candidates in positions two and three, indicating substantial uncertainty about who consolidates support beyond the frontrunner
- Trading volume is concentrated in two contracts (Donalds-Collins-Renner at $1,159 and Donalds-Collins-Fishback at $1,127), suggesting these two orderings are seen as most competitive
- No single non-leading ordering exceeds 21%, meaning the 30% leader holds only a modest edge over its closest competitor
- The timing suggests limited time remains for candidate positioning, endorsements, or debate performance to shift the perceived finishing order

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flrgovexact
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=flrgovexact
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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