# Will Florida Governor winner be Democratic party and Florida Senate winner be Democratic party

> Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win leads at 76%, runner-up 10% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flsengovcombo
Updated: 2026-10-12T16:20:52.166Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win at 76%
- Runner-up: David Jolly and Ashley Moody win at 10%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win | 76¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-governor-winner-be-republican-party-a-kalshi-kxflsengovcombo-26nov-reprep |
| David Jolly and Ashley Moody win | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-governor-winner-be-democratic-party-a-kalshi-kxflsengovcombo-26nov-demrep |
| David Jolly and Angie Nixon win | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-governor-winner-be-democratic-party-a-kalshi-kxflsengovcombo-26nov-demdem |

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Florida voters will elect Democratic candidates for both governor and Senate in 2026, currently priced at 8 cents (8% likelihood). The dominant market view, at 72%, favors Republican victories in both races, driven by Florida's rightward electoral shift in recent cycles and Republican registration advantages. Democratic prospects depend heavily on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and whether national political conditions favor their party by election day. The outcome will be determined on election day in November 2026, with early voting and absentee ballot patterns in the weeks prior potentially signaling final margins. Key conditions that would strengthen Democratic odds include significant economic headwinds, shifts in independent voter preference, or strong turnout among younger and minority voters in urban-leaning counties.

### Key factors

- Florida's voter registration shows Republican advantage of approximately 140,000 registered Republicans over Democrats as of mid-2024
- Republican candidates won Florida's 2022 gubernatorial race by 3.7 points and 2024 presidential race by 3.0 points
- Democratic performance in 2026 depends on candidate recruitment quality and whether national political environment creates favorable tailwinds
- Early voting and mail ballot returns in late October 2026 will provide concrete data on turnout and geographic performance trends before election day
- Historically, Florida midterm elections in off-years have shown lower Democratic turnout relative to presidential cycles

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/flsengovcombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=flsengovcombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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