# How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fomcdissentcount
Updated: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 65%
- Runner-up: 1 at 19%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-dissenting-votes-at-the-next-fed-meeting-kalshi-kxfomcdissentcount-26jun-0 |
| 1 | 19¢ | −1pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-dissenting-votes-at-the-next-fed-meeting-kalshi-kxfomcdissentcount-26jun-1 |
| 2 | 6¢ | −1pp | $677 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-dissenting-votes-at-the-next-fed-meeting-kalshi-kxfomcdissentcount-26jun-2 |
| 3 | 4¢ | ±0 | $80 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-dissenting-votes-at-the-next-fed-meeting-kalshi-kxfomcdissentcount-26jun-3 |
| 4 | 3¢ | +1pp | $806 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-dissenting-votes-at-the-next-fed-meeting-kalshi-kxfomcdissentcount-26jun-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 64 | 16 | 7 |
| 2026-06-01 | 67 | — | 9 |
| 2026-06-03 | 75 | 9 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 68 | 11 | 8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 66 | 19 | 7 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · 1 +6pp 13→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · 0 −3pp 71→68¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the next Federal Reserve meeting will produce no dissenting votes among the voting committee members. Currently priced at 64%, this suggests traders view consensus as more likely than any outcome involving dissent. Fed dissent typically emerges when members disagree on policy direction, inflation risks, or economic conditions. The current pricing likely reflects relatively stable economic expectations and broad agreement on monetary policy trajectory. Factors that could shift this include unexpected inflation data before the meeting, economic deterioration, or shifts in member rhetoric signaling concerns. The resolution will be determined by the official voting record released immediately after the next scheduled FOMC meeting, where the actual number of dissenting votes becomes public information.

### Key factors

- Current market assigns 19% probability to exactly 1 dissent and 3% to 3+ dissents, indicating baseline expectation of strong consensus
- Recent Fed communication patterns and economic data trends determine whether members publicly signal disagreement before voting
- Historical dissent frequency at recent FOMC meetings provides baseline context for whether 64% aligns with typical consensus levels
- Economic data releases between now and the next meeting (inflation reports, employment, GDP growth) could trigger member disagreement
- Scheduled FOMC meeting date and any pre-meeting member communications will clarify positioning as resolution approaches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fomcdissentcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fomcdissentcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.