# Will Arthur Fils win the French Open

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 4 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fomen
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.571Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-08

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 72¢ | +4pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-french-open-jannik-sinn-kalshi-kxfomen-26-sin |
| Novak Djokovic | 5¢ | ±0 | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-french-open-novak-djok-kalshi-kxfomen-26-djo |
| Alexander Zverev | 7¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-french-open-alexande-kalshi-kxfomen-26-zve |
| Arthur Fils | 4¢ | +2pp | $813 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-fils-win-the-french-open-arthur-fils-kalshi-kxfomen-26-fil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 19 |
| 2026-04-25 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | 5 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Jannik Sinner +4pp 66→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Arthur Fils is assigned a 24% probability of winning the 2026 French Open, derived from predictions across two markets. The market shows significant disagreement, with Kalshi traders pricing his chances at 25% while Polymarket prices them at 4%, suggesting uncertainty about his tournament prospects. Near-term, Fils faces Etcheverry in the Round of 16 (currently favored at 74%), making immediate performance the primary driver of probability movement. Broader factors include his form relative to top-ranked competitors like Jannik Sinner, who carries a 66% win probability in parallel markets. The tournament's progression through the round-of-16 match will provide concrete data on Fils' performance level. His path to the final and consistency against elite opponents will be critical to whether his probability rises or falls in subsequent rounds.

### Key factors

- Fils is currently favored to beat Etcheverry (74% implied probability), but must advance through multiple rounds to reach the final
- Sinner's 66% win probability on parallel markets suggests at least one strong competitor ahead of Fils in overall tournament odds
- Kalshi traders price Fils 21 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants, indicating disagreement about his competitive level
- Trading volume concentrates on the Etcheverry matchup rather than the outright tournament winner, suggesting more confidence in near-term prediction than full-tournament outcome
- Djokovic and other contenders carry single-digit probabilities, indicating a concentrated field where elite players dominate tournament odds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fomen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fomen

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.