# Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam

> Closed. Final outcome: no. Last odds frozen 4 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fortuna-sittard-vs-feyenoord-rotterdam
Updated: 2026-05-04T18:50:19.539Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-feyenoord-rotterdam-win-the-eredivisie-feyeno-kalshi-kxeredivisie-26-fey |

## Analysis

This represents the market's expectation that Fortuna Sittard will beat Feyenoord Rotterdam in their upcoming match. The 38% probability reflects Feyenoord's status as the stronger team, with a 64-63% win probability priced on various contracts, while Sittard is valued at 14-36% depending on the venue. The probability is driven by the teams' recent form, standings position in the Eredivisie, and head-to-head historical performance. A 4 percentage point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests modest disagreement on Feyenoord's edge. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty, determining whether Sittard pulls an upset or Feyenoord wins as expected. Factors like injuries, weather, and tactical setup closer to kickoff could shift odds meaningfully, though current pricing appears relatively stable given the low trading volume on direct match outcome contracts.

### Key factors

- Feyenoord is priced roughly 2:1 favorite over Sittard across venues, indicating meaningful quality gap between the teams
- Direct match-outcome contracts show higher liquidity and tighter pricing on Polymarket (64¢) versus Kalshi (63¢), suggesting similar market sentiment with thin spread
- Low 24-hour trading volume on most Sittard-Feyenoord contracts ($2-$15) indicates sparse liquidity and potential for wider swings if large orders arrive
- The 4 percentage point cross-venue gap (40% vs 36%) is modest relative to the binary outcome, suggesting no major informational asymmetry between platforms
- Exact match date and teams' current Eredivisie standings would determine whether 38% reflects baseline expectation or situational factors (injuries, fixture congestion, relegation/European pressure)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fortuna-sittard-vs-feyenoord-rotterdam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fortuna-sittard-vs-feyenoord-rotterdam

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