# Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio

> Democratic sweep leads at 34%, runner-up 33% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fourstatesen
Updated: 2026-08-10T05:20:50.336Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democratic sweep at 34%
- Runner-up: Republican sweep at 33%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $55

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic sweep | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-all-4-democratic-sweep-kalshi-kxfourstatesen-26nov03-tttt |
| Republican sweep | 33¢ | −1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-none-republican-sweep-kalshi-kxfourstatesen-26nov03-ffff |
| Texas, Alaska, Ohio | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-texas-alaska-ohio-texas-alaska-kalshi-kxfourstatesen-26nov03-ttft |
| Iowa, Ohio | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-iowa-ohio-iowa-ohio-kalshi-kxfourstatesen-26nov03-fftt |
| Texas, Iowa, Ohio | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-texas-iowa-ohio-texas-iowa-ohio-kalshi-kxfourstatesen-26nov03-tftt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democratic sweep | Republican sweep | Texas, Alaska, Ohio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 38 | 36 | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 36 | 34 | 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | 34 | 33 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Democrats will win both Iowa and Ohio in the 2026 election cycle. At 35%, the Republican sweep scenario is currently favored, suggesting markets view these states as leaning Republican. The current level reflects historical voting patterns in both states—Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in recent presidential cycles—combined with demographic trends and early polling signals. Movements in this probability would likely respond to shifts in national sentiment, economic indicators before the election, and performance of Democratic or Republican candidates in these specific states. The main catalyst shaping this probability will be campaign developments and polling movements as the election approaches, with particular sensitivity to any major national events affecting voter preferences.

### Key factors

- Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in the last two presidential cycles (2016, 2020), establishing a baseline expectation favoring GOP performance
- The 35% Democratic outcome is split across multiple contracts, with 'no wins' (Republican sweep) and a single-state Democratic win tied as co-leaders, indicating market uncertainty about which specific outcome dominates
- Kalshi contract volume is relatively modest ($264–$332 in 24h volume per top contracts), suggesting limited price discovery and potential for shifts as market participation increases
- The number of possible outcomes (9 separate contracts) spreads probability mass thinly, with most individual scenarios trading at or near 3¢, reflecting low confidence in any single Democratic path through these states

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fourstatesen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fourstatesen
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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