# Will Coco Gauff win the French Open

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 6 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fowomen
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:58.225Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-08

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | 16¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-iga-swiatek-win-the-french-open-iga-swiatek-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-swi |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 31¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-aryna-sabalenka-win-the-french-open-aryna-sab-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-sab |
| Marta Kostyuk | 5¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-marta-kostyuk-win-the-french-open-marta-kosty-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-kos |
| Mirra Andreeva | 7¢ | −1pp | $978 | kalshi | /markets/will-mirra-andreeva-win-the-french-open-mirra-andr-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-and |
| Elena Rybakina | 14¢ | +1pp | $320 | kalshi | /markets/will-elena-rybakina-win-the-french-open-elena-ryba-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-ryb |
| Coco Gauff | 9¢ | +1pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-coco-gauff-win-the-french-open-coco-gauff-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-gau |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 17 |
| 2026-04-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 14 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Iga Swiatek −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Iga Swiatek +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Elena Rybakina −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Iga Swiatek −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Elena Rybakina +3pp 13→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Coco Gauff will win the 2026 French Open tennis tournament, currently estimated at 13%. Gauff competes in a field dominated by top-ranked players: Jannik Sinner is priced at 65%, while Iga Swiatek holds 21%, suggesting traders view her as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite. The 4-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (13%) and Polymarket (9%) indicates modest disagreement on her odds. Gauff's probability would rise with strong performances at preceding tournaments or improved clay-court results, and fall if higher-ranked opponents display superior form. The French Open tournament itself, scheduled for late May 2026, will resolve this contract. Current pricing implies roughly 1-in-8 odds for Gauff, positioning her below Swiatek but above players like Zverev and Djokovic in the market's hierarchy.

### Key factors

- Gauff's 13% implied odds rank below Swiatek (21%) and well below Sinner (65%), suggesting traders view her as unlikely to win despite her career achievements
- Kalshi volumes significantly exceed Polymarket on this outcome ($6,854 in 24h volume), with the 4pp spread indicating room for disagreement on her true probability
- Pre-tournament performance on clay courts between now and late May 2026 will provide concrete data on form and fitness that could shift market pricing
- Recent head-to-head records and ranking fluctuations against top contenders directly inform whether traders adjust the 13% estimate upward or downward
- The tournament date in late May 2026 serves as the hard deadline for resolution, making near-term clay performances the primary catalyst for probability movement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fowomen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fowomen

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.