# Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $100 in 2026

> Above $100 leads at 90%, runner-up 84% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fragrance
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.288Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $100 at 90%
- Runner-up: Above $100 at 84%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $100 | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-100-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-100 |
| Above $100 | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-100 |
| Above $70 | 82¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-70-in-2026-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-70 |
| Above $110 | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-110 |
| Above $120 | 65¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-120 |
| Above $110 | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-110-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-110 |
| Above $80 | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-80-in-2026-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-80 |
| Above $120 | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-120-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-120 |
| Above $90 | 37¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-90-in-2026-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-90 |
| Above $130 | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-130-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-130 |
| Above $130 | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-130 |
| Above $100 | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-100-in-202-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-100 |
| Above $140 | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-140-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-140 |
| Above $150 | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-ysl-y-be-above-150-in-2026-above-kalshi-kxfragrance-27-150 |
| Above $110 | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-110-in-202-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-110 |
| Above $140 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-140 |
| Above $120 | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-versace-eros-be-above-120-in-202-kalshi-kxfragrance-27ver-120 |
| Above $150 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-jean-paul-gaultier-le-male-elixi-kalshi-kxfragrance-27jpg-150 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $100 | Above $100 | Above $70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 48 | 85 | 81 |
| 2026-06-18 | 81 | — | 86 |
| 2026-06-20 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 88 | 83 | 81 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above $80 +26pp 22→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $110 −11pp 88→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $130 −10pp 42→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above $100 +8pp 81→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $130 −7pp 36→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction represents a strong market expectation that Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir will retail for more than $100 by the end of 2026. The high probability reflects current pricing trends in the luxury fragrance market, where premium designer scents typically command prices in this range, and the contract's recent trading activity suggests confidence in this outcome. The main uncertainty centers on potential price adjustments by retailers or changes in currency valuations that could affect USD pricing. A key catalyst would be observing actual retail prices in major markets during the second half of 2026, particularly any official price announcements or shifts in premium fragrance positioning. The gap between the $100 threshold (89%) and the $110 threshold (56%) indicates traders see meaningful probability that the fragrance will exceed $100 but with less certainty about substantially higher prices.

### Key factors

- Current luxury designer fragrances in this product line typically range from $90–$150 retail in major markets
- Trading volume on the $100 contract is higher than competing fragrance contracts, suggesting more certainty or attention on this specific threshold
- The fragrance pricing reflects both brand positioning and currency fluctuations; USD strength or weakness could materially impact the threshold
- Retail pricing decisions by Jean Paul Gaultier and major department stores between Q3 and Q4 2026 will directly determine resolution
- The 33-point gap between the $100 outcome (89%) and $110 outcome (56%) reveals market uncertainty about where the price will actually settle

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fragrance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fragrance

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.