# Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:54.134Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 3¢ | +23pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0c38dd9305e3205557885183f0730270779e7e426b0ec3e7743f23963b6d6e4a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 4 |
| 2026-04-19 | 5 |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-04-28 | 27 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? +23pp 4→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This measures the likelihood that France, the UK, or Germany conducts a military strike against Iran within the next two months. The 42% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 51% while Polymarket prices it at 19%, a 32-percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about escalation triggers. Current pricing appears influenced by regional tensions and nuclear negotiations, though the low trading volume on this specific contract ($14k in 24 hours) indicates limited market confidence in pricing. The main drivers are Iranian nuclear program developments, regional proxy activity, and diplomatic negotiation status. The June 30 deadline means resolution depends on events over the next two months, with any major escalation in Yemen, Iraq, or direct Iranian provocations potentially shifting probabilities sharply. Geopolitical risk remains elevated but concentrated among a small subset of traders.

### Key factors

- Kalshi prices this 32 percentage points higher than Polymarket (51% vs 19%), suggesting fundamental disagreement on escalation likelihood that may reflect different trader composition or information access
- Related Iranian regime-change contract trades at only 7¢ on Polymarket, indicating low market confidence in near-term governmental collapse despite the strike contract being considerably higher-priced
- Very low volume on the strike contract itself ($14k/24h) compared to broader Iran theme contracts, suggesting limited conviction and potential pricing inefficiency from thin liquidity
- No major scheduled Iranian nuclear deadline or Western ultimatum currently visible in May 2026, meaning strike probability depends on unexpected escalation rather than anticipated diplomatic event
- Timing window is only two months, which constrains how much ordinary negotiation or diplomatic development can resolve uncertainty versus requiring acute security incident

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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