# France vs. Iraq

> France leads at 82%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/france-vs-iraq
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.330Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Leader: France at 82%
- Runner-up: Draw (France vs. Iraq) at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 82¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-iraq-france-polymarket-0xe2c2cba80ca7e745aef3ff3c3a359db4d862f2b0ea40a9821bb137bb9e31b40f |
| Draw (France vs. Iraq) | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-iraq-draw-france-vs-iraq-polymarket-0x1a319ce803f4e711b25af81a1d8bfb59c5cc6e5ef09ac046fc65e652c98e714e |
| Iraq | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-iraq-iraq-polymarket-0x4882b26f86a381553f8b5742e99c615a2ef95599c64feacba3fb826d18e745aa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Draw (France vs. Iraq) | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 80 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 81 | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 15 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 83 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 83 | 12 | 7 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · France −3pp 82→79¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · France +3pp 79→82¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment of which team will win in a matchup between France and Iraq, with France currently priced at 82% likelihood of victory. The high probability reflects France's stronger historical performance, superior ranking in international competitions, and deeper player pool compared to Iraq. Key factors that would shift this probability include recent form (injuries to star players, consecutive losses), head-to-head records, home/away advantage if applicable, and Iraq's recent improvements in team cohesion or tactical organization. The resolution depends on the actual match result when it occurs; any official postponement, cancellation, or rule changes regarding eligible players could also impact the outcome. Market pricing remains thin on some contracts, suggesting limited trading activity and potential for repricing as the match date approaches.

### Key factors

- France's historical competitive ranking and player quality relative to Iraq's squad depth and experience at this level of competition
- Recent form and injury status of key players on both teams in the weeks leading up to the match
- Head-to-head records and tactical patterns from previous encounters between these nations
- Home field advantage and crowd factors if the match location favors one team
- Any changes to team rosters, coaching staff, or competition format announced closer to the event date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/france-vs-iraq
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=france-vs-iraq

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.