# France vs. Senegal

> France leads at 70%, runner-up 19% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/france-vs-senegal
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.984Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: France at 70%
- Runner-up: Draw (France vs. Senegal) at 19%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $74

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 70¢ | +1pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-senegal-france-polymarket-0x04b6d6630d49e6513355ff045c96439c929335cb0d18da7792dea6c2fc717ead |
| Draw (France vs. Senegal) | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-senegal-draw-france-vs-senegal-polymarket-0xbd175757f12ecc85b7aae7f1f35c8637e350227dd2967abd6e1373e245c51f49 |
| Senegal | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/france-vs-senegal-senegal-polymarket-0xc5c075c77d2b8a98606097f5e42c3e907a66debf4a4058131dc0160235fa8fed |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Draw (France vs. Senegal) | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 69 | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 69 | 20 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 69 | 21 | 12 |
| 2026-05-03 | 69 | 21 | 13 |
| 2026-05-07 | 69 | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 69 | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 70 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that France will win an upcoming match against Senegal. The 35% probability for France is notably lower than historical head-to-head records might suggest, indicating markets are pricing in specific circumstances—possibly Senegal's recent form, home-field advantage, or France fielding a non-primary squad. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, with France's win probability likely to shift based on team lineups, injury updates, and any pre-match betting movement closer to kickoff. The 3-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement on France's winning chances, though both markets converge around 32-35%.

### Key factors

- France's historical dominance in head-to-head matchups with Senegal versus current market pricing below 40%, suggesting specific contextual factors driving lower expectations
- Senegal's recent form and any home-field advantage if the match is played in Africa, which would mechanically reduce France's win probability
- Team lineup composition—whether France fields a full-strength squad or rotates players, directly affecting match outcome probability
- Betting volume concentration on France contracts (68¢ polymarket, $301 volume) versus Senegal (12¢ polymarket, $13 volume) showing asymmetric confidence in the France outcome
- The 3pp divergence between venues suggesting incomplete price discovery or different trader assessments of underlying match conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/france-vs-senegal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=france-vs-senegal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.